583
FXUS63 KDDC 031800
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

...Updated Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread low clouds will keep temperatures cool and below
  normal Tuesday.

- Scattered thunderstorms with potential for hail across the
  southeast zones early Wednesday morning.

- Stronger storm system will bring strong south winds and much
  warmer temperatures Thursday.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Thursday
  evening. Some storms may be severe with large hail and
  damaging winds.

- More severe weather possible eastern zones Friday, ahead of a
  strong cold front Friday night. Much cooler Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Yesterday`s colder model solutions are verifying nicely at
midday, with the frontal boundary and sharp temperature gradient
south of the KS/OK border. Surface observations and satellite
imagery depicts widespread stratus across all of SW KS, and the
stratus will persist through sunset with cold surface ridging
wedging down through SW KS. Temperatures will struggle in the
40s this afternoon with light northeast winds.

Stratus will continue to prevail tonight, deterring radiational
cooling, allowing temperatures to only fall into the 30s. Most
locations will be dry tonight, with more areas of fog and
drizzle. Strong shortwave trough over eastern Colorado will
increase forcing for ascent after midnight, with scattered
thunderstorms expected over the southeast counties. Any
convection will be elevated over the cold boundary layer,
as such small to marginally severe hail is the expected hazard.
Any hail should be quarter sized or less, per SPC 5% hail
probability.

Shortwave trough axis is forecast to arrive over SW KS midday
Wednesday, and into central Kansas by 6 pm. Subsidence behind
this feature will clear the sky from west to east, with sunshine
returning Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will respond,
rebounding back to the 60s. Winds will be light for a pleasant
early spring day.

A much stronger, colder closed midlevel cyclone will dig
southeast over the Great Basin Thursday, near Salt Lake City at
6 pm Thursday. Associated lee cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado
will be strong, forcing south winds to increase significantly.
Strongest wind guidance is preferred as usual, with 12z MAV
trending upward, near 30 mph sustained 3 pm Thursday. Increased
winds over NBM, with gusts to near 50 mph by early evening.
Moisture advection will accompany these south winds, as it is
pretty obvious the dryline will remain well backed to the west
through Thursday. Rather unusual the hold the dryline west of
SW KS in early March, but that appears to be the case with the
parent cyclone so far removed upstream. Despite the strong
winds, this reduces wildfire danger markedly Thursday afternoon.
With SW KS east of the dryline, thunderstorm potential is
apparent especially Thursday evening. Instability and shear will
be sufficient for organized convection including supercells, but
initiation/triggers are more muddled. With the dryline not
moving, much surface convergence will be lost, which would
squash potential with strong capping/EML in place. Synoptic
forcing for ascent will also be well removed to the west, with
the system still centered in Utah. There is also a question if
the true warm sector can even get into SW KS, with
stratus/drizzle prevailing amid the strong warm/moist advection.
It is extremely difficult to set up severe thunderstorm
synoptic environments this far west, this early in the season,
so these caveats against convection deserve attention. Extended
CAMs such as RRFS highlight some of these factors, which is dry
through 6 pm Thursday, with initiation most likely in the
panhandles/caprock, moving northeast into Kansas Thursday
evening. Any sustained convection will be capable of large
hail/damaging winds, and NBM`s likely pops for the eastern zones
were maintained.

Medium range model consensus is for the Great Basin trough to
split into two distinct shortwaves Friday, one becoming a cutoff
low over the SW US, the other ejecting through the central
plains through Friday. Significant severe weather is likely in
the warm sector Friday, ahead of the dryline and south of the
expected surging cold front. Models suggest this threat may
begin across our eastern zones, acknowledging the dryline
usually ends up west of model predictions. Wildfire danger will
increase behind the dryline Friday afternoon, with strong
southwest winds and relative humidity falling to near 10%.
Strong cold front will easily clear the Oklahoma border by
midnight, with strong north winds Saturday morning, and much
cooler air Saturday afternoon. Some locations will hold in the
50s Saturday, before another very rapid warming trend Sunday and
Monday. NBM is already forecasting near record highs in the
lower 80s Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1005 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Surface observations at 16z Tue depicted widespread IFR/LIFR
stratus across SW KS. Surface visibility was in the process of
improving as fog lifts into a stratus layer. Poor flying
conditions will continue through most of the upcoming TAF
period, with persistent IFR stratus prevailing. VFR/SKC is
forecast to return from west to east, just after this TAF
period, after 18z Wed. Winds will remain light through this
TAF cycle, mainly with a northerly component.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner