288
FXUS63 KDDC 250817
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
217 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The ongoing dry pattern is expected to continue early this
  week.

- More seasonal temperatures are forecast today with a brief
  warm up Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

WV imagery indicates an upper level shortwave trough swinging east
through the Upper Midwest while weak ridging aloft is transitioning
slowly east across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a cold
front is surging southward across the Texas Panhandle and northern
Oklahoma.

A prevailing dry pattern is forecast to persist early in the period
as the SREF indicates the weak upper level ridge approaching from
the west breaking down as it moves out into the Western High Plains
today, giving way to a fairly zonal flow aloft through mid-week.
Combined with a much drier air mass spreading into western Kansas in
wake of the frontal passage, precip chances (<10%) are expected to
remain absent across the region through Wednesday evening.

Much cooler temperatures can be expected today as colder air spills
southward into western Kansas, lowering H85 temperatures to around
0C by this afternoon. Under decreasing cloud cover look for afternoon
highs generally in the 40s(F) with the HREF showing an 80-90%
probability of temperatures topping 40F in central Kansas to a 60-80%
probability of temperatures exceeding 45F closer to the Oklahoma
border. Lee side troughing developing in wake of a departing surface
high will bring back low level southerlies to western Kansas Tuesday,
drawing slightly warmer back into the area with H85 temperatures
nearing 5C. Expect afternoon highs mainly in the 50s(F) with the
lower 60s(F) possible in extreme southwest Kansas where the HREF
paints a 50-70% probability of temperatures nudging above 60F. High
temperatures drop again Wednesday with the arrival of another cold
front early in the day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

MVFR cigs and potential isolated IFR cigs will linger in vicinity
of all TAF sites overnight as low level stratus continues to spread
southward through central Kansas and portions of southwest Kansas
behind an advancing cold front. Widespread VFR conditions are forecast
to return toward daybreak Monday as the stratus deck scatters out/exits
into northern Oklahoma. North winds 20 to 30kt with gusts up to 35kt
overnight are expected to slowly subside through late Monday afternoon
as a cold front pushes farther south across much of Texas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson