105
FXUS63 KDDC 061750
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1250 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will move out of Colorado around 6 or 7 pm,
  expanding east with time. An Enhanced Risk area after 7 pm
  extends from the Colorado line to Garden City and Liberal,
  where hail in excess of 2 inches (15-30% coverage) in diameter
  and Tornadoes (up to 5% coverage) are possible.

- Additional rainfall of 2 to 3 inches is expected between 7 pm
  and midnight in the southwestern most counties, leading to
  scattered to even numerous instances flash flooding This
  Evening.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Plenty of similarities exist in the mesoscale environment going
into late this afternoon and Tonight as compared with the large
hail and heavy excessive rain producing thunderstorms of
Thursday night. As a cool stable stratus layers begins to erode
and allow for afternoon destabilization, the CAPE and 0-3km
shear fields quickly evolve to once again support, fairly quick
moving northwest flow supercells along the KS/CO line by about
the 00 UTC timeframe. CONUSPROBV3 2-5 km prob updraft helicities
again target the southwest Kansas counties with intense
rotating updrafts between 00 and 05 z (7 pm and midnight). CAPE
looks weaker overall with more weight on the shear values. Those
southwest counties only show about a 20 to 50% chance for
MLCAPE values getting above 1000 J/KG, and virtually no chance
of 2000 j/KG. Nevertheless, a few counties including the
communities of Johnson, Elkhart Hugoton and Liberal are covered
in the hatched area for 2+ inch diameter hail Friday afternoon
and evening.

The last 24 hours are a great example of where uncertainty on
forecast becomes the biggest factor, as heaviest rains from
several rounds of thunderstorms few to the west of our watched
area in the southern 2 tiers of Kansas counties. Now, a higher
degree of confidence is lent to a new flood watch for excessive
rainfall for Tonight, across the southwest 4 counties as the
antecedent conditions will send all convective rain straight
into runoff  and all but certain to wipe out most of the the
abnormally dry area on the US drought Monitor south of the Ark
River. Look for scattered to numerous instances of flash
flooding across these areas with inundated county roads and
water out of the banks of streams and tributaries. At this time
the latest 6-hr QPF ensemble prob matched means from HREF target
areas southwest of a Garden City to Ashland line with scattered
2 to 3 inches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Light northeasterly winds will become east at 10 to 15 knots by
00z Saturday as an area of high pressure at the surface exits
western Kansas and surface pressures fall along the lee of the
Rockies in response to an approaching upper level trough. Low
clouds and patchy fog at 17z will give way to VFR ceilings
(3500-7000) after 21z. The chance for thunderstorms will
increase this evening as the upper level trough moves into the
West Central High Plains. A few of these storms will be capable
of producing heavy rain, large hail and gusty winds as they
cross southwest Kansas early tonight. The best chance for large
hail will stay west of a Garden City to Liberal line tonight.
Heavy rainfall which will reduce visibility to 1 mile or less will
be the main hazards as these storms cross the Garden City and
Liberal areas between 03z and 07z and then the Dodge City area
between 04z and 09z. Hays will also have thunderstorms between
04z and 09z also but the risk of heavy rain is not expected.
Once these storms pass there will be a +70% chance for ceilings
to fall below 1000ft AGL between 12z and 18z Saturday.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ061>063-074>078-
080-081-084>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert