156
FXUS63 KDDC 041029
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
529 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorm chances (20%) out west late today.

- Warming trend pushes temperatures closer to seasonal average
  today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

WV imagery indicates ridging aloft shifting slowly east through the
Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a
weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern
Colorado.

Minimal thunderstorm chances (20%) are forecast early in the
period as the SREF indicates a slowly amplifying ridge axis
aloft moving out of the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of
eastern Colorado with a 70kt upper level jet core dropping
southeast through western/central Kansas. Near the surface,
prevailing southeasterlies will continue to reinforce deep layer
moisture across the area with surface dewpoints holding in the
60s(F), providing ample instability with MLCAPE values pushing
well above 2500 to 3000 J/kg. Combined with peak heating bringing
about steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, this will set the
stage for potential thunderstorm development late afternoon into
early evening. Although the aforementioned ridge axis nearing
proximity to the KS/CO line may help suppress this development,
a few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out developing along
and ahead of the dryline, then potentially spreading into western
Kansas this evening. This is supported by most CAMs as well as
the HREF painting a 10-20% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1
of an inch in extreme southwest Kansas by late this evening.
Drier conditions are likely Tuesday as the upper level ridge
axis moves farther east through the Western High Plains.

More seasonal temperatures return today as prevailing southeasterlies
help draw warmer air into the area, pushing H85 temperatures above
20C in central Kansas to well above 25C closer to the Colorado line.
Considering the HREF shows a 60-80% probability of temperatures topping
85F in south central Kansas to a 70-90% probability of nudging above
90F in extreme southwest Kansas, expect widespread afternoon highs
in the 80s(F) with near 90F well out west. The warming trend continues
into Tuesday with more 90s(F) likely.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 528 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail in vicinity of all TAF
sites through this evening. Light southeast winds are expected to
increase 10 to 20kt mid/late morning into early afternoon as an
anchored lee side trough of low pressure in eastern Colorado slowly
strengthens.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson