786
FXUS63 KDDC 031045
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
445 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas north and east of Dodge City may see continued fog
  development with widespread visibilities currently around 2-4
  miles

- A much warmer than normal weekend with highs reaching towards
  70 degrees

- Dry weather forecast until a potential pattern change late
  next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Very benign weather is still in place over SW Kansas. Other than
fog, there is very little notable weather to speak about. No
dominant surface level systems and gentle ridging over the Rockies
have left SW Kansas with dry air and calm, shifting winds. The dry
and quiet weather is expected to continue into next week.

Light fog has developed across SW Kansas east of Highway 83 very
early this morning with both Dodge City and Hays reporting 4 mile
visibilities or less. Especially Hays and Dodge City (with areas in
between) is forecasted to see denser fog develop and visibilities
drop further. Light and variable winds this morning will help be
conducive to the fog. Currently, a Dense Fog Advisory has not been
issued due to uncertainty in getting areas to sustain at 1/4 mile
visibilities. However, ensembles have up to a 30% chance for <1 mile
visibilities and the HRRR progging areas down to 1/4 mile so very low
visibilities are possible in isolated areas or brief moments. A
headline will be needed if the foggiest solutions materialize. Most
if not all fog is expected to erode and disperse by around 10 AM
this morning. The areas of densest fog may also lead to
freezing fog as moisture develops on roads and sidewalks before
freezing. This is a hazard especially on bridges and low-lying
areas. Traveling precautions should be advised.

After the fog, the weekend warm up is still on track. Highs Saturday
are expected in the upper 50s into the 60s and highs on Sunday
reaching well into the 70s in western Kansas with all of the area
with a chance (>40% via ensembles) to see 70 degrees. Sunday will
also see winds finally strengthen out of the light and variable
regime seen the last few days. Sunday is forecast to see southerly
winds strengthen up to 20 mph. As the only day without light winds
in the next few days, the fire weather risk is notable. Relative
humidity minimums are expected to get as low as 15% in far
west/southwest Kansas. The winds are not expected to be strong
enough for a headline, but elevated caution is advised with the low
relative humidities.

Ensembles in the previous days were bullish about a notable pattern
change next week around Thursday. However, the upper-level trough
previously progged is now barely a shortwave. Precipitation chances
may still arrive with the ensembles at around a 25% chance Thursday
into Friday. While the chances are still small, it is more to
illustrate a potential pattern shift away from a very dry and calm
stretch. Clarity over the weather late next week will arrive in
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 445 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Fog has developed with DDC at 1/4 mile visibilities and Hays down to
4SM. More fog development is possible north and east of DDC
including HYS. Nearly all the fog will erode or recede by around 16Z
and VFR conditions will take over for all sites through the
remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable until
around 2Z when it strengthens from the south. Near the end of the
period, some LLWS is possible, but due to the marginal and
relatively uncertain nature it was excluded from a prevailing
group.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ