570
FXUS63 KDDC 241649
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1149 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to marginally severe thunderstorm complex early this
  morning could produce wind gusts up to 60 mph and nickel size
  hail.

- Cool, cloudy, and rainy daytime Saturday through Memorial Day.

- Ensembles hint at drier and warmer conditions Tuesday into
  mid-next week, but confidence is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Early morning KDDC radar observations show a strong to
marginally severe thunderstorm complex over our east-central and
southeast zones within an upslope, theta-e advection regime.
Latest HREF indicates this complex will continue southeastward
over the next few hours, and should exit our area by 10-11Z.
Primary hazard with this activity will be wind gusts up to 60
mph, hail up to the size of nickels, frequent lightning, and
heavy rainfall. Additional convective development is possible
farther north from roughly Wakeeney to St. John, as multiple
CAMs suggest. This activity is also expected to be strong to
marginally severe, posing the same threats as the complex to the
south.

Daytime Saturday, short range guidance suggests a cold front,
reinforced by convective outflow, will pass through our area
into the TX/OK panhandles by late morning. In its wake, cool
east to northeast winds, mostly cloudy skies, and spotty light
rain showers will exist through much of the day, fostering
afternoon temperatures well below normal with highs in the low
60s north to low 70s south. Saturday night into early Sunday
morning, HREF members depict elevated thunderstorm development
is possible along the 850-mb front over our southern zones.
Given spatiotemporal inconsistencies between CAMs, confidence is
relatively low, but any thunderstorm could produce frequent
lightning and heavy rainfall.

During the day Sunday, continued northeast winds, overcast
skies, and scattered rain showers are likely ahead of an
approaching upper level trough located over the Intermountain
West at 18Z. As such, afternoon temperatures will remain 10-15
degrees F below normal, with highs in the low 60s north and
northwest to the low 70s southeast.

On Memorial Day, medium range ensembles begin to eject the
aforementioned upper level wave onto the High Plains. As forcing
for ascent increases over the central plains, an increase in
precipitation coverage is expected, and this is reflected in NBM
pops in the definite category (75-100%) during the early morning,
and in the chance (25-54%) to likely (55-74%) categories in the
late morning and afternoon. Temperatures will be even cooler
than Sunday, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 50s
north to mid/upper 60s south.

In the wake of this wave Tuesday into mid-next week, medium
range ensembles begin to diverge regarding the synoptic
evolution, but do hint at weak upper level ridging building
over the spine of the Rockies. This pattern would support
decreasing precipitation chances and warming temperatures,
however given the predictability concerns, this is far from
certain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Probabilities of MVFR flight category are the most confident
between 18Z today - 06Z Sunday (50-80%) as we will have a
mixture of low clouds and sunshine through the early evening.
After 06Z the probability of IFR and LIFR increases to 80-90%
as showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop between a
700 mb and 850 mb front and this area would include much of
southwest Kansas. In some of the heavier rain bands we could see
surface visibilities drop to 2-4 SM. After 12Z we should see
some breaks in the rain and cloud ceilings rise back to MVFR at
times however IFR probabilities are still at 50-80% especially
where the rain continues through the daytime hours. Sustained
winds will be generally 10-20 kts with gusts approaching 25 kts
at times.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Tatro