364
FXUS63 KDDC 291733
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1233 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overnight storms possible tonight mainly in the northern and
western zones

- Heat continues into Thursday with highs around 100 and heat index
values as high as 107

- A stronger cold front Thursday night will lead to storms in north
central Kansas and cooler temperatures for the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

17z synopsis shows an upper level 596 dm high centered over New
Mexico with a shortwave trough rotating through the northeast
quadrant of the high.  This wave has led to some spotty rain showers
this morning mainly around Hays to Medicine Lodge.  Morning clouds
have subdued the temperatures a bit however as the wave moved out
skies have been clearing from west to east and noon temperatures
have risen into the upper 80s.

Tonight another round of storms will develop in the Colorado Rockies
as a shortwave develops on the northern side of the upper high and
will move southeast through the night.  Model updates have shown the
upper high to stay more to the south and west which would allow the
storms a better opportunity to make it to western Kansas after
midnight.  Short term models also show the better lower level
moisture and atmospheric instability to be along and north of a
Syracuse to Hays line and as a result 30-40% POPs will be included
for these areas between midnight and sunrise.

Thursday the heat will have some uncertainty as any storms that are
in the area should leave a cloud deck through the morning hours.
Once the storms decay by the late morning a warm front will lift
through western Kansas and allow temperatures to rise quickly after
the noon hour.  Models show afternoon 850 temps to rise around 30
(C) which should help to get surface temperatures to 100 degrees for
much of the CWA.  NBM probability of MaxT greater than 100 ranges
from 50-70% from a Scott City to Hays line to near 100% from Hugoton
to Medicine Lodge.  As a result a heat advisory will be in effect
from Seward to Barber county given the lower level moisture should
help to get heat index values to near 105.

Thursday night into early Friday morning the upper level high should
shift to the southwest as stronger trough in the northern plains
starts to dive to the southeast.  With this trough a stronger cold
front for this time of year should move through Nebraska during the
day.  A thunderstorm complex will break out along the front and dive
into north central Kansas by late Thursday night.  With the hot
temperatures and lower level moisture from the day before and modest
instability ahead of the front some of the storms in north central
Kansas could contain damaging winds and a marginal risk is in effect
from WaKeeney to St. John.  Storms should rapidly move southeast
through the night as models have picked up on a quicker passage of
the cold front.  By sunrise Friday the front should be near the
Oklahoma border.  Highs on Friday should be noticeably cooler from
Thursday with lower 90s in the north to the upper 90s along the
Oklahoma border.

Long term ensemble trends keep the core of the hotter air locked
into the Rockies for the weekend so we should expect dry conditions
and highs in the 90s both days.  Early next week the upper high
shifts to the east and the hotter air should return to much of
western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period.
Winds could briefly gusts to around 20 kts at times this
afternoon but overall wind speeds should be around 10 kts. Later
tonight a thunderstorm complex is forecast to come out of
eastern Colorado and could lead to some scattered storms near
the GCK and HYS terminals by early Thursday morning. PROB30s are
included from 09-11Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ081-088>090.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ086>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro