109
FXUS63 KDDC 071913
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
213 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, warming trend across southwest KS continues to begin the work
week

- A cold front will pass through the area early Wednesday, briefly
interrupting the warming trend

- Warming trend restarts Friday, with afternoon highs reaching
  the 80s to low 90s over the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

No major changes to the forecast as short range ensemble suggest the
upper level ridge currently above the Plains will flatten out as an
upper level shortwave and strong jet extends eastward. As a result,
lee troughing will develop across eastern Colorado. Northeast winds
this afternoon will shift to the southeast this evening before
shifting to the southwest tomorrow. A weak cold front will move
through the area tomorrow night shifting winds to the north. These
northerly winds continue throughout Wednesday and into Thursday. The
atmosphere above western Kansas will remain dry with mostly clear
skies expected through tomorrow and a few mid to high level clouds
tomorrow night. As for temperatures, lows tonight will dip into the
low to mid 30s with highs tomorrow in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees. Currently the NBM shows the probability of temperatures
exceeding 80 degrees ranging from around 20 percent across central
Kansas to over 70 percent across our western zones. Lows will dip
into the 40s tomorrow night with mid to upper 70s Wednesday. Expect
another night in the 40s Wednesday night with low to mid 70s
Thursday afternoon.

As we head into the late part of the week into this weekend,
ensemble models agree that an upper level ridge will amplify over
the Rockies and slide into the Plains. Dry conditions continue with
afternoon temperatures expected to soar into the mid to upper 70s
Friday and into the 80s to around 90 degrees this weekend. The
current NBM run shows probabilities of exceeding 90 degrees greater
than 60 percent west of Highway 83 Saturday and the entire CWA
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight with mostly clear
skies. Winds will be from the northeast this afternoon, shifting
to the southeast this evening.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42