628
FXUS63 KDDC 042000
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm Tuesday afternoon in the 70s.

- Dry cold front Wednesday morning with elevated northeast
  winds. Another dry cold front is expected Thursday night.

- Stronger, but still dry, cold fronts are expected over the
  weekend.

- Hard killing freezes are expected Sunday and Monday mornings,
  with temperatures in the teens and 20s.

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future,
  through at least November 13th.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

A strong 594 dm midlevel high was centered over southeast Texas
at midday. Infrared satellite imagery continued to show thick
cirrus eminating off the Rockies, spreading across Kansas,
embedded in the westerly zonal flow. The cirrus is expected to
thin this afternoon, and with unseasonably warm air near 19C at
850 mb, afternoon temperatures in the 70s will be enjoyed.
Record highs are not expected to be threatened given the cirrus
filtered sunshine and poor mixing. Winds will remain light and
variable through the afternoon.

The next in a parade of dry cold fronts is expected to sweep
through SW KS 3-6 am Wednesday, with a sharp increase in
northeast winds. Northeast winds will remain strong/elevated
through the first half of Wednesday, and followed the strongest
12z MAV guidance, with northeast winds averaging 20-30 mph
6 am through noon Wednesday. Northeast winds will weaken rapidly
Wednesday afternoon as 1025 mb surface high pressure builds
south into Kansas. Full sunshine is expected Wednesday afternoon
with temperatures near normal in the 60s. Return SWly flow
establishes rapidly Thursday, only to be replaced by another
dry cold front Thursday night. Wind direction changes will occur
with these dry weak fronts, but with no significant air mass
exchanges, temperatures will remain near early November normals.

Much stronger cold fronts are anticipated this weekend, in
response to amplifying troughing over the Great Lakes. The first
cold front will race through early Saturday, with strong north
winds Saturday, much stronger than NBM guidance, although NBM is
trending stronger in this regard. 850 mb wind fields suggest a
high probability of north winds gusting over 40 mph Saturday.
North winds and cold advection will continue through Sunday,
with NBM max temperatures Sunday trending downward into the 40s.
A secondary cold front will deliver a strong reinforcement of
cold dry Canadian air Sunday night/Monday morning, with 12z
ECMWF placing a 1043 mb surface high over Kansas sunrise Monday.
This synoptic setup will deliver the coldest temperatures so
far this fall, with a hard freeze in the teens and 20s Monday
morning. NBM continues to correctly trend downward and colder.

Northwest flow cold air invasions are brief on the high plains,
and indeed strong warming is forecast Monday and Tuesday as
ridging expands from the Rockies to the plains. This aligns with
CPC`s 60-70% probability of above normal temperatures in the
8-14 day temperature outlook.

All model guidance and their ensemble members remain impressively
dry, with precipitation probability of 0% expected through at
least November 13th.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1009 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Excellent flying weather will continue through 09z Wed, with
VFR, variable amounts of cirrus, and light/variable winds. A dry
cold front passage is expected 09-12z Wed, with northeast winds
gusting 27-30 kts during the 12-18z Wed time frame.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner