507
FXUS63 KDDC 051704
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1204 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The long stretch of hot afternoons will continue for the next
  several days, with afternoon temperatures of 98-103 common. A
  heat advisory remains in effect east of US 283, where higher
  humidity will push the heat index to near 105 each afternoon.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor the northwest
  zones Saturday evening, where some may be strong to marginally
  severe. Wind gusts of 45-60 mph will be the primary hazard.

- Hot afternoons will continue all week, but a cold front may
  finally offer some heat relief next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

An upper-level high continues to take up nearly the CONUS to
make up the most of the synoptic pattern. The only other
notable aspect continues to be a very deep low pressure system
over the Pacific Northwest. Nearer to the surface, weak low
pressure continues to persist across SW Kansas. Weak storms have
festered for the last few hours with sub-severe storms as
forecast. In regards to ongoing headlines, a Heat Advisory
remains in effect for the Highway 183 corridor and eastward
until 8 PM Sunday.

Saturday will continue the pattern of very hot temperatures
and storm potential out west. Highs are forecast around 100
degrees with apparent temperatures approaching 105 degrees in
the eastern zones. The focus on the forecast tomorrow is the
storm chances. It is expected to represent Friday`s storms very
similarly. Around 0Z, storms are expected to develop and move
out of Colorado. A marginal risk is in effect for the far
northwest counties. It is expected that most, if not all of the
storms, remain sub-severe similar to Friday. Forecast NAM
soundings have held firm progging 1200 J/kg CAPE, 20 KTs shear,
and low level lapse rates of 10 C/km. It seems unlikely that
storms will be able to organize and mature to become severe, but
a few severe winds gusts remain possible.

Sunday through Tuesday will keep the heat, but with a near zero
chance for storms (<5% via ensembles). The days are forecast to
be a degree or two cooler than Friday/Saturday, but highs are
still forecast in the upper 90s and tangibly the difference
won`t be noticed.

Tuesday night/Wednesday morning will be the next good chance for
precipitation. That said, ensembles have been trending drier and
farther northwest, now only covering the northwest portion of the
CWA up to around a 25% chance for storms. Early indication is
that these storms will remain sub-severe, but that is subject
to change. After Tuesday, the pattern of hot highs and small
storm chances out west continues through the remainder of the
forecast period. Fire weather conditions may remain elevated
with a strong south wind, especially sunday, of up to 20 mph and
gusts up to 25-30. However, relative humidities will remain
well above 20% and stay away from any fire weather headline
criteria. With that in mind, traditional fire weather
precautions are always advised.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A shortwave will come out of Colorado this evening and this wave
will develop some widely scattered storms mainly in northwest
Kansas. However a few storms could be near the GCK terminal
between 02-07Z and PROB30s are included. These storms could also
have a downburst threat of wind gusts up to 50 kts. There is a
small probability (10-15%) of an isolated storm affecting the
HYS terminals between 20-00Z with another weaker wave moving
through central Kansas. Overall VFR flight category for all
terminals (minus any thunderstorms that could go over GCK
airport which would drop the category to MVFR) and breezy winds
for GCK, LBL, and HYS that could have 20 kt gusts between
18-00Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ031-046-065-066-
079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Tatro