745
FXUS63 KDDC 300531
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1231 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is currently in effect for the easternmost 3
  counties Tuesday until 8 pm

- Isolated thunderstorms possible early tonight across west
  central and north central Kansas. Isolated gusty winds will be
  the main hazard

- Scattered thunderstorms can be expected Wednesday and
  Thursday. The main hazards will be gusty winds and periods of
  heavy rainfall which may produce localized water issues

- A strong midsummer cold front will arrive Wednesday night,
  providing much cooler temperatures the last few days of the
  work week. Current forecast has highs on Thursday and Friday
  ranging from the mid 70s to around 80 degrees

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

The synoptic pattern aloft has continued to remain fairly unchanged
with the pattern dominated by a large and deep high pressure system
over the southeastern CONUS. At the surface, a low pressure system
has developed off the Rockies and continues to slowly encroach on
the forecast area.

Today marks the last day of widespread heat for a few days. Highs
are expected to once again climb towards 100 degrees across SW
Kansas. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Barber, Pratt, and Stafford
counties until 8 pm CDT with heat indices up to 105 degrees. Into
the evening, the current weather pattern for SW Kansas finally
changes. A cold front is expected to pass into the forecast area in
the late evening and into Wednesday morning off of the previously
mentioned surface low. This will cause a dramatic wind shift, cooler
temperatures, and the potential for thunderstorms. CAMs have held
firm that the significant majority of the thunderstorms will develop
to the west of the forecast area with little coverage expanding into
the area. Weak storms have already began firing in the far southeast
portion of Colorado. The HRRR, RAP, and NAMNST all have the storms
reaching as far east as a line from Johnson City to Scott City. As
the storms weaken and dissolve they may meander eastward, but the
tangible effects will be negligible. Even at their strongest, these
storms are not expected to reach near severe thresholds although
gusts may reach up to 40 mph.

With the cloud cover and CAA from the front, Wednesday will be much
cooler. Barber county is the only county with a decent chance to
near 100 degrees, but most of SW Kansas will be in the upper 80s-
lower 90s for the high. Late Wednesday another chance for storms
arrives to SW Kansas Kansas. Ensembles have areas north of Highway
54 at or above a 55% chance for precipitation. CAM`s have the storm
chances starting around 7 pm with the highest amounts expected to
fall near the KS/OK border in far SW Kansas.

Thursday and Friday are expected to be the coolest days of the
forecast period. Forecasted highs are in the upper 70s. This is due
to the colder air brought by the front, continued weak CAA from the
northeast, and significant cloud cover due to the Wednesday night
storms that linger into Thursday. Through the weekend, ensembles
have a modest warm-up with highs rising up towards the 90s. Also
during the weekend, ensembles depict a couple rounds of
precipitation, but exact details are too uncertain with the pattern,
especially with the temporal uncertainty. Monday and Tuesday will
look similar to the weekend with warm temperatures (highs in the
90s) and slight chances for waves of precipitation (15-30% via
ensembles).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Widely scattered thunderstorms (<20%) will accompany a trough
of low pressure at the surface as it crosses southwest Kansas
overnight. BUFR soundings indicate ceilings at or above 9000
feet AGL overnight. As this boundary passes the southerly winds
at 10 to 15 knots will shift to the north northwest at 10 to 15
knots. A brief period of higher wind speeds is possible
immediately following this boundary passage. This initial
boundary passage will be followed by a cold front crossing
southwest Kansas after 12Z Wednesday. As this cold front passes
during the day the north winds will become more northeast but
remain in the 10 to 15 knot range. Ceilings of 6000 to 10000
feet AGL are possible this afternoon following the cold frontal
passage and as scattered late day storms develop. Chances for
convection are possible after 21Z today with better chances
occurring after 00Z Thursday, mainly in the Liberal, Dodge City,
and Garden City areas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Burgert