936
FXUS63 KDDC 172317
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
617 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a cooler day today, expect warmer and more humid weather
  for Friday.

- This weekend will mark the beginning of a prolonged hot and
  mainly dry spell.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025


Over the next several days upper level ridging will gradually
expand northward across the plains and Midwest. A surface front
over the southern plains will shift northward along with the
ridging. Initially we will have very high dewpoints in place
across Kansas this weekend before we warm up and dry out. This
will result in very humid weather Saturday and Sunday. There are
small chances (10-20% or less) of thunderstorms through Sunday
given the mid level westerlies still in place across the
Rockies, along with the resultant capping inversion and
accompanying potential instability. After Sunday, high
temperatures will warm to the upper 90s to near 100 and humidity
levels will come down some. This drying will diminish
thunderstorm chances even further due to diminished potential
instability. As we dry out, high temperatures will gradually
warm to 100 degrees and possibly higher. The only caveat to a
dry forecast is that the models show the upper level ridge
centered east of the plains, allowing for some monsoonal
moisture to advect northward from the tropics. The various
ensemble mean moisture fields show a signal of this monsoonal
flow across the western high plains and foothills, with 700mb
humidity rising into the 60-80% range. This would limit the
strength of any capping inversion and possibly allow for
thunderstorm activity. The various ensemble mean precipitation
is very low, indicating the isolated nature of any
thunderstorms. Therefore, hot and mainly dry weather can be
expected through next weekend; but isolated thunderstorms can`t
be completely ruled out, particularly across extreme western
Kansas in closer proximity to the monsoonal flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Low level moisture will increase overnight with improving and
deepening moist southeasterly upslope flow across southwest
Kansas. BUFR soundings and HREF/LAMP ceiling probabilities
indicate a high likelihood (>70%) of ceilings falling below 1000
ft AGL after 06Z tonight (Friday). There is a 30 to 50% chance
that ceilings will fall below 500ft AGL between 09z and 15z
Friday. Additionally areas of visibilities at or below 2 miles
will be possible early Friday morning, mainly in the Liberal,
Dodge City, and Hays areas. These low clouds are expected to be
slow to erode early Friday. VFR conditions will develop across
southwest Kansas between 18Z and 21Z Friday.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert