033
FXUS63 KDDC 171910
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
210 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances of storms (10-20%) from this afternoon through
Tuesday with the best opportunity of storms coming Tuesday

- Temperatures staying warm through the mid week (highs in the mid
to upper 90s) then a cooling trend showing up in the long term
models towards next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

19Z surface analysis has a 1009 mb low along the Colorado-Kansas
border in northwest Kansas with a surface trough extending south
along the state line through northeast New Mexico.  A sharp moisture
gradient also exists roughly between Liberal to Syracuse with dew
points in the mid to upper 60s east of this line.  A few bubbling cu
is also start to show up on satellite along the Kansas-Oklahoma
border and the upper air analysis has a 594 dm high centered in
Arkansas with southwest flow extending from the 4 corners region
through northwest Kansas.

For the next 24 hours CAMs are all over the map as to where
convection may develop and given the lack of weak flow aloft and the
main surface lift showing up with the dryline west of highway 83 the
overall chances of storms is low with a 10-20% chance of isolated to
widely scattered storms roughly between the highway 83 and 183
corridors.  Skew Ts and hodographs are showing relatively weak shear
with ~20 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear and CAPE values ~2000 j/kg which
should keep severe storms at bay but a stronger storm with sub
severe hail and 50 mph gusts can`t be ruled out.

Monday there could still be some lingering overnight convection in
the far southeast but any storms that develop should quickly fade
after sunrise.  Another warm day is expected with highs in the mid
90s to near 100.  A 595 dm high will start to build roughly near the
4 corners region and with a shortwave crossing through northeast
Colorado in the afternoon we should see storms develop.  With weak
flow aloft any storms that do develop will take quite a while before
they reach northwest Kansas and probably into southwest and north
central Kansas after sunset.  Storm chances should stay low at 20%
with the best opportunity for rain in north central and northwest
Kansas.

Tuesday NAM hints at a frontal passage most likely from outflow from
the previous night`s storms and east to northeast winds all day.
Temperatures should start to trend slightly cooler with highs more
in the lower to mid 90s.  Storm chances will largely be dependent on
the location of where the frontal boundary stalls and as the high in
the Rockies continues to build the upper level winds will be more
north to northwesterly which will set up the best upper level lift
in central Kansas.  As a result the best POPs will be along and
south of the highway 56 corridor Tuesday evening.

Long term trends show temperatures continue to stay on a cooling
trend and ensemble clusters have the upper high in the Rockies
continuing to retrograde westward. This will set up more east to
northeasterly winds to usher in cooler air and in general low
precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period.
Between 21-03Z there is 10-20% chances of thunderstorms for all
terminals however with the isolated nature of the storms the
probability of the storms going over a terminal is low at this
point. Winds will be breezy between 18-00Z at 12-15 kts
sustained and gusts to 25 kts. Winds should diminish to below 12
kts after sunset.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro