693
FXUS63 KDDC 111900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Strong south winds Saturday afternoon, gusting 40 to 45 mph.

- A strong cold front Sunday evening will be followed by much
  cooler air on Monday.

- Improving rain chances Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Midday surface observations showed south to southwest winds
increasing across SW KS. Winds will continue to get stronger
through the late afternoon, in response to lee cyclogenesis
near 995 mb in eastern Colorado, and a tightening pressure
gradient. Gusts near 40 mph are expected, especially northwest
of Dodge City, and along the preferred US 83 corridor.
Temperatures will again soar this afternoon to unseasonably warm
levels in the upper 80s, with several locations touching 90.

Downstream of a longwave trough over the Rockies, a low level
jet will establish across the plains tonight, keeping south
winds elevated and gusty. This mixing will strongly deter
radiational cooling, with most locations remaining in the 60s
through sunrise. The NBM forecast minimum temperature at DDC
Sunday morning is 67, near the record warmest low temperature
record of 66/1975. Normal for mid October is mid 40s.

Continued unseasonably warm to hot Sunday, as SW KS remains in
the warm sector ahead of an advancing strong cold front.
12z NAM forecasts the cold front to arrive in the northern zones
about 4 pm, then racing south through SW KS Sunday evening,
exiting into Oklahoma by 10 pm. SWly prefrontal downslope
compression will send temperatures soaring Sunday, and warmed
high temperatures 1-2 degrees above NBM guidance. The warmest
guidance may be favored, such as 12z MAV showing a high of 93
at DDC (the record high at DDC is 94/1975). Northeast winds will
be quite strong Sunday evening as cold advection arrives in a
warm mixed boundary layer, and northeast winds will probably be
stronger than the NBM.

Clouds will increase Sunday night through Monday, as SWly
midlevel flow and warm air advection increase over the much
cooler northeast winds at the surface. Afternoon temperatures
Monday will be dramatically cooler, with 60s common. Some
afternoon temperatures in the 50s are probable where thick cloud
cover limits insolation, and feel NBM may not be cool enough
for Monday. Rain chances will return Monday night through early
Tuesday, best shown by the extended 12z NAM with overrunning
rain north of the stalled frontal boundary. MEX/NAM/NBM guidance
agree on a relative max of rain probability early Tuesday
morning, and that is where the highest pops in the forecast will
be. Instability will be limited to nil, so only showers are
expected with little/no thunder.

Flow becomes much more amplified Tuesday, with a strong cutoff
midlevel cyclone over California, forcing the upper high to
strengthen to near 595 dm over Texas. ECMWF and its ensemble
members show strong south winds returning through Wednesday,
with another strong warming trend, probably stronger/faster than
NBM suggests. Afternoon temperatures will rebound back to the
80s, with global model 850 mb wind fields supporting gusts near
45 mph Thursday afternoon. Much cooler air will arrive Friday
through next weekend, but models are in disarray regarding
frontal timing and strength of cold advection. ECMWF/EPS depicts
850 mb temperatures reduced to 4-5C on strong north winds next
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR will continue through this TAF period, with varying amounts
of cirrus. Strong south winds will impact aviation operations at
all airports through 00z Sun, gusting 33-35 kts. South winds
will remain elevated and gusty through tonight, in response to
a strong low level jet. Included low level wind shear in all
TAFs starting at 03z Sun. Winds will trend SWly Sunday, ahead
of an expected strong cold front Sunday evening.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner