381
FXUS63 KDDC 122036
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
336 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal temperatures and above average humidity can be
  expected over the next week.

- There are 40-50% chances for thunderstorms Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

After a cool day today, upper level ridging will develop over
the southern plains by Sunday and Monday, resulting in a return
to south winds and warmer weather. Highs will increase to the
upper 80s Sunday, lower 90s Monday and mid 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday. An upper level trough will traverse the northern
plains Wednesday and push a cold front into Kansas by Wednesday
evening. With plentiful moisture continuing to be in place,
there are moderate to high chances for thunderstorms Wednesday
night. The mid level jet stream will be north of Kansas, with
50kt high level winds reaching as far south as west central and
central Kansas. Given the high level shear and frontal
convergence, thunderstorm organization into a line appears
likely. The ensemble mean rainfall from the EPS/GEPS/GEFS and
ICON indicate modest amounts around a quarter to a half inch.
The limited amounts are due to the brevity of the rainfall
episode. However, as we typically experience in summer, amounts
will be highly variable, with some locations getting a lot more
or a lot less. Although high-end severe weather is not
expected; it doesn`t take much at all on the high plains this
time of year to get a 60 mph wind gust or nickel/quarter sized
hail stone from an average thunderstorm.

Slightly cooler weather can be expected in the wake of the
front on Thursday, with highs falling back into the 80s to lower
90s. This cooling will be short-lived as upper level ridging
re-develops across the southern plains. However, there is some
spread in the ensemble members of the various models, with some
showing less ridging than others. If the southern edge of the
westerlies stays over Kansas, then fronts will occasionally pass
through, with chances for thunderstorms. If the upper level
ridge expands farther north (something that hasn`t happened
consistently this summer), then very hot and dry weather would
develop.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Low MVFR CIGS were developing at KDDC with daytime mixing and
increasing moisture with height at lower levels. It is uncertain
how long this will persist; but with continued daytime heating,
VFR CIGS should return by 21-22z. Only scattered low cloud is
anticipated at KGCK and KHYS. Winds will be light and generally
10 kts or less through the period as weak surface high pressure
builds across the plains.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch