790
FXUS63 KDDC 261004
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
504 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry conditions can be expected this weekend and early
  next week. Heat index values are currently forecast to range
  from 100 to near 104. The warmest heat index values will be
  east of highway 183.

- A break in the heat can be expected late week. Along with some
  cooler temperatures returning there will also be improving
  chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a weak upper wave
moving into central Kansas earlier this morning with convection
occurring ahead of it. Across southwest Kansas, clear to mostly
clear skies were observed as surface pressures began to fall
along the lee of the Rockies.

For today, models remain in good agreement with an upper level
ridge building into the Central Plains. 850mb temperatures are
expected to warm by an average of 4C between 00z Saturday and
00z Sunday. By 00z Sunday the 700mb temperatures will range from
14 to 16C. This warm up today continues to support the NBM
forecast with highs rebounding back into the mid to upper 90s.
With south southeast winds, dew points will mainly be in the mid
60s. This combination will result in heat index values ranging
from 100 to near 104, with the warmest readings occurring
across south central Kansas, which is below heat advisory
criteria. Guidance also suggests a 10% to 30% chance that a few
locations in the Stafford, Pratt, and Barber county areas could
see dew points a few degrees higher than currently forecast. If
this occurs, heat index values of around 105 will be possible
for these locations. Given that the probability of this is 30%
or less have decided to hold off on issuing a heat advisory for
later today.

Further west today, a surface boundary near the Colorado border
will be the focus for very isolated thunderstorm chances. The
probability for any convection is low (<20%) but given large low
level lapse rates and high cloud bases, if any storm does
develop, the potential exists for isolated gusty winds.

Todays warmup marks the beginning of an extended period of hot
conditions across south central and southwest Kansas. As an
upper level high continues to build into the Central Plains
through early next week the temperature spread of the 25th to
75th percentile at 850mb and 700mb each day is forecast to be
less than 3C. These forecast 850mb temperatures (29-32C) Sunday
and Monday not only supports the current NBM forecast of highs
near 100 degrees, but given the small spread they also provide a
high confidence forecast (>80%) for these hot temperatures.
Heat index values from Sunday through early next week are
forecast to range from 100 to near 104 each afternoon which
again remains below Heat Advisory criteria. We will be
monitoring the surface dew points closely due to the chance (10%
to 30% chance) that areas east of Highway 183 could see
dewpoint temperatures a few degrees higher. If these higher
dewpoints do verify it would result in heat index readings
exceeding 105. If the trend towards these higher dew points
appears more likely over the next few model runs then heat
advisories will be issued. Regardless of whether your area is
under a Heat Advisory this weekend or early next week, those
with outdoor plans should exercise caution. Limit your time
outdoors, take plenty of breaks, and drink plenty of water.

Looking ahead to late week, the upper high over the central
plains will slowly track west as a 500mb ridge builds across the
northwest United States. As this occurs, an upper trough will
exit central Canada and move towards the Great Lakes region. As
this upper level system moves into the Great Lakes...a cold
front will drop south and cross western Kansas around Thursday.
High temperatures following this cold frontal passage late week
are expected to fall back 80s which below seasonal normals for
late July/early August. Along with this cooler air returning to
southwest Kansas, there will be an increased chance for
precipitation due to the return of moisture ahead of an upper
level trough that appears to be moving from the southwest United
States towards the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 502 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Light winds early this Saturday morning will increase to 10 to
15 knots between 15z and 18z today as surface pressures fall
along the lee of the Rockies. BUFR soundings indicating VFR
conditions over the next 24 hours.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert