609
FXUS63 KDDC 062240
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
540 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat continues for Monday and Tuesday with potential heat advisory
criteria in our eastern zones on Tuesday

- Rain and storm chances increase Tuesday night with a mid week cold
front

- A stronger cold front is still on track for next Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

17Z synopsis shows a large upper level ridge occupying much of the
central parts of the CONUS with a slow moving and persistent 700 mb
shortwave which has kept clouds and dying showers roughly from Hays
to Liberal throughout the morning.  These clouds have kept
temperatures down however with clearing skies we should see a quick
warm up by late afternoon.  At the surface an outflow boundary from
the storms is positioned from Pratt to Meade with northerly winds on
the backside...we should see the winds turn back to the south as a
1007 mb low strengthens in eastern Colorado.

Tonight another shortwave will develop in eastern Colorado with the
southwest flow aloft and CAMs have shown a few isolated storms
developing in southeast Colorado late this afternoon into the
evening. Upper level flow aloft is weak so the general thought
is the storms will struggle to cross the state line and POPs are
less than 10% from Syracuse to Elkhart.

Monday we should see a similar weather pattern in the upper levels
with southwest flow aloft, a developing 700 mb shortwave in the
afternoon and a deepening surface low in the Rockies which will help
to increase the winds out of the south 15-25 mph with higher gusts.
Temperatures should warm back to near 100 but with the lack of lower
level moisture most heat index values from short term models keep
the area under the heat index criteria of 105 so I decided to not
issue one at this point for tomorrow.  Late in the afternoon storms
will develop in eastern Colorado along a weak frontal boundary and
the shortwave and move generally into northwest Kansas.  I added
small POPs (20%) from Syracuse to Scott City given that the upper
level winds will be a little stronger and this could push the storms
into our far northwest zones.  CAPE values should generally be 1000
J/kg or below so severe weather is not anticipated.

Tuesday will probably be the hottest day of the week with
widespread 100 degree highs and heat index values pushing 105
mainly along and east of highway 183.

Midweek a stronger trough in the northern plains should provide
momentum for a surge of cooler air to reach into north central and
northwest Kansas by the late afternoon hours on Tuesday.  Another
shortwave in the southwest flow should be more positioned in Kansas
that thunderstorms are forecast to break out along the boundary
roughly from an Elkhart to Hays line.  At this time we have general
thunder for the severe forecast but eyeballing the skew-T sounding
from the shorter term models there are CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg
and bulk shear values around 30 kts which would suggest these storms
could have some wind/hail potential.  Storms should slowly move
south through the night and then a reinforcing push of colder air on
Wednesday should move the front completely through southwest Kansas.
NBM trends for Thursday are now showing highs around 90 degrees.

Saturday into Sunday long term ensembles continue the trend of a
strong upper level wave moving from northwest Canada into the
northern plains which will provide momentum for cooler air to move
through western Kansas on Saturday.  Sunday`s highs are now showing
to be in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current
southeast winds in the 12-15 kt range gusting to 25 kts will
weaken to aob 12 kts after sunset, followed by re-strengthening
into the 15-20 kt range gusting to 30 kts by mid/late morning
tomorrow.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031-046-065-
066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Springer