854
FXUS63 KDDC 041055
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
555 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will be scattered (20-40% chances) across
  central and southwest Kansas this afternoon and evening.

- Warm and humid weather will persist for the next week, with
  high temperatures near seasonal levels in the upper 80s to
  mid 90s.

- There are chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms
  Sunday and Tuesday (10-40%), with better chances late
  Thursday and Friday.


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A weak upper level trough will traverse the high plains today. A
surge of tropical moisture was occurring this morning and
precipitable water values will be on the order of 1.6 to 1.9"
today. Although forcing will be weak, thunderstorms will develop
with daytime heating by early afternoon given the absence of a
capping inversion. The weak vertical wind shear profile and
poor lapse rates are unfavorable for severe weather, although
small hail and gusty winds can`t be completely ruled out. The
best chance for storm organization into a larger cluster is
along the I-70 corridor from Scott City to Hays. Given the high
precipitation efficiency, locally heavy rain may occur with
slow moving storms.

Upper level ridging will shift westward to the southern Rockies
by Sunday. Weak upper level disturbances are predicted to pass
along the northern edge of the ridge into the central and
northern plains. One such weak system will pass late Sunday and
another Tuesday. There are chances for thunderstorms (20-40%)
on both of these days. Based on the ensemble means of the ENS
and GEPS, a stronger upper level trough will approach the high
plains by Thursday night and Friday, resulting in strengthening
mid to high level westerly to northwesterly winds. This would
promote storm organization and the storms could be severe given
the increased vertical wind shear. The tornado season for
central and southwestern Kansas essentially ended in late June
(except for isolated, short lived events such as the Bucklin
tornado of 25 July 1995); but large hail and damaging winds can
occur during the summer if conditions are right.

Given the humid regime that is expected to persist, high
temperatures will stay near seasonal levels through next week.
However, given the moist air, it will feel several degrees
warmer than the actual temperature, especially from Dodge City
eastward into central Kansas.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 551 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Low MVFR CIGS will gradually improve to VFR by 17-18z at
KDDC/KGCK and KLBL with daytime heating. Scattered thunderstorms
may affect the TAF sites (Prob30) after 19z as an upper level
disturbance approaches and low level moisture increases. Winds
will increase to 14-16 kts today as a surface trough persists
across the high plains.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch