297
FXUS63 KDDC 242243
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
543 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence (70-80%) of accumulating rains for much of
southwest Kansas during the overnight hours tonight into daybreak
Sunday morning

- Rain chances remain high (40-50%) through the Memorial Day holiday

- Temperatures remain cool for this time of year through mid week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

19z surface observations and upper air analysis shows a surface low
in the southern part of the Texas panhandle with a surface warm
front extending into northwest Oklahoma into southeast Kansas.  At
the 850 mb level the front has set up from the Oklahoma panhandle
through central Kansas and the 700 mb front is along the I-70
corridor.  500 mb winds are out of a southwest direction with a
developing shortwave in north central New Mexico.

Tonight HREF ensembles and individual short term models are
highlighting an area of rain and storms developing after sunset
tonight along the highway 50 corridor.  This is the result of the
700-850 mb front hanging out in this area and the upper level
shortwave providing the lift for a widespread area of rain and
storms.  With northeast winds and fairly stable air at the surface
the amount of CAPE will be fairly low (250-750 J/kg) so severe
threat should be low and thunderstorms will be elevated.  PW values
of 1.25-1.5 should give the storms efficient moisture to have some
locally heavier rainfall especially along and east of highway 283.
Probabilities of greater than 0.5 inch of rain are highest from Ness
City to Pratt line on north at 30-50%.

Sunday the upper level lift and shortwave should exit into central
Kansas and the rain and storms should subside through the late
morning into the afternoon hours.  With upslope winds and high RH
values in the lower to mid levels we should stay fairly cloudy
through the day and this will keep temperatures mainly in the 60s to
lower 70s.

Sunday night looks to be another high confidence event in rain as
the 700-850 mb front extends from Liberal to near Hays through the
night and an upper level shortwave moves through southwest Kansas
during the night.  With the stronger heating to the south and cooler
stable air in southwest Kansas the severe threat should remain low
once again.  Higher probabilities of QPF will be along and east of
the Liberal to Hays front as getting greater than 0.5 inch is at 20-
80% with the higher probabilities as you go further east in the
state.  Memorial day also looks cool and rainy as the longwave
trough in the 500 mb levels moves into the central plains and the
surface to 850 mb front remains fairly stationary from northwest
Texas through southeast Kansas.  WPC currently has our CWA outside
of an excessive rain threat but given the several days worth of rain
in the same spots there may be some potential (10-20%) of some
localized flash flooding east of highway 183 by Memorial Day.

Looking into the long range there`s quite a bit of uncertainty as
the upper level trough turns into a low in the Great Lakes region
and the central plains will be in northwest flow.  LREF shows some
consistency with an upper level shortwave moving through western
Kansas during the day on Wednesday.  This wave will lead to some
scattered rain and storms as NBM probabilities are at 50-60%
Wednesday afternoon into the evening. Temperatures should remain
cooler as the cyclonic flow around the Great Lakes will keep the
winds generally out of a north to northeast direction.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

The probability of IFR and LIFR ceilings and visibilities increases
to 80-90% as showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
between a 700 mb and 850 mb front and this area would include
much of southwest Kansas. In some of the heavier rain bands we
could see surface visibilities drop to 2-4 SM. After 12Z we
should see some breaks in the rain and cloud ceilings rise back
to MVFR at times however IFR probabilities are still at 50-80%
especially where the rain continues through the daytime hours.
Winds will be generally be from an easterly direction at 10-20
kts with gusts approaching 25 kts at times.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Hovorka_42