053
FXUS63 KDDC 100506
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1206 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A heat advisory is in effect for southwest and south central
  Kansas on Monday. High temptress expected to range between
  105 and 108.

- Little relief in the heat expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
  Highs both day near 105 possible

- Thunderstorm chances will be on the increase late week and
  into the weekend period. Widespread beneficial rainfall also
  possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

A persistent upper high was located over the southwest United
States earlier this evening with several weak upper level
disturbances rotating around this upper high. Across eastern
Colorado and western Kansas a trough of low pressure at the
surface extended from southeast Colorado into north central
Kansas. 850Mb temperatures at 00z Sunday from eastern Colorado
into western Kansas ranged from 32 to 34C and 700mb temperatures
were between 16 and 18c. These unseasonably warm temperatures
combined with deep mixing on Sunday resulted in highs ranging
from 105 to around 110. Also given afternoon dewpoints in the
lower 50s the afternoon heat index values were around 105 to
near 110, mainly east of highway 283. These hot temperatures
today were 3-5F warmer than the NBM guidance with the 75th to
90th percentile for highs on Sunday verifying better. Given
this and that the 24 hour trend in 850mb and 700mb temperatures
will change/decrease by less than 2C it appears that afternoon
temperatures across southwest Kansas will be near or only a few
degrees cooler compared to what we had on Sunday. This would
support more of the NBM 75th to 90th percentile for highs on
Monday than the cooler current NBM guidance. Also do not expect
dewpoints to be much lower than what we had today also given the
ongoing southerly flow. Based on all this and that these
conditions warranted a heat advisory yesterday will go ahead and
issue another heat advisory for all but north central Kansas.
Reason for holding off across portions of north central Kansas
is due to the uncertainty on how quickly temperatures may
recover given the potential for some cool outflow air spreading
into this region from a cluster of thunderstorms that will be
moving across north central Kansas overnight. Will monitor this
over the next few hours and if it looks like this outflow will
not have much impact with temperatures on Monday will expand the
heat advisory northward.

Also on Monday the southwest United States upper high will
expand eastward which will improve large scale subsidence across
western Kansas. As a result despite the possibility over
another upper wave exiting the Central Rockies and moving out
into the plains late Monday the probability of convection
currently appears lower than what west central and north central
Kansas experienced over the weekend period. The chance for
storms Monday evening is not zero but below 15%. Should a storm
or two develop it will be along the surface trough that will
still be located across eastern Colorado and northeast Kansas.
Isolated wind gusts of 50-60mph will still be the primary hazard
given the high cloud bases and large low level lapse rates.

Little relief in the heat can be expect Tuesday and Wednesday
as the unseasonably warm 850mb temperatures remain in place.
Highs once again in the triple digits will be possible. Both
days the NBM has a 30-60% chance for highs to exceed 105 across
extreme southwest Kansas, as well as area east of Liberal along
the Oklahoma border and across much of south central Kansas.

Changes in this weather pattern will begin to take shape during
the last half of the work week as a cold front drops south into
western Kansas and the upper ridge over the plains shifts
eastwards as an upper level trough develop/move into over the
western United States. This will allow for a more favorable
environment for some monsoonal moisture to return to the Central
Plains. Upper level waves embedded in the developing west southwest
flow along with improving moisture and a surface boundary
in/near southwest Kansas will result in improving chances for
thunderstorms late week and into the weekend. Improving
precipitation chances along increase PWATs by the weekend also
would point towards more favorable conditions for a period of
widespread beneficial rainfall.

This pattern change will also bring an end to the extended
period of heat that southwest Kansas will experience during the
first half of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Convection from earlier this evening across southwest Kansas
has tapered off but several of the CAMS suggests that Hays may
be in store for another opportunity of convection between 8 and
10z tonight as a cluster of thunderstorms move out of southwest
Nebraska and into north central Kansas. Along with another
chance for convection gusty northwest winds will also accompany
these storms. By 12z Monday the winds across all of the TAF
sites will be south at 10 to 15 knots and these winds will then
increase into the 15 to 20 knot range by 18z. VFR conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours with a period of lower VFR
ceilings (9000 to 12000ft AGL) being possible with the
outflow/possible convection before 10z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
Monday for KSZ061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert