812
FXUS63 KDDC 242323
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
523 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty north winds and temperatures falling back into the 20s
  tonight will result in wind chill values in the teens early
  Monday morning.

- light rain showers or snow flurries are possible Wednesday
  night, with no significant precipitation expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Short term models this morning are in good agreement and
consistent with previous runs, showing gusty north winds
developing early tonight as colder air moves into southwest
Kansas. The combination of cold air advection forecasted by CAMS
and a 5080% chance from the HREF of wind gusts exceeding 30
mph overnight will result in wind chills dropping into the teens
early Monday morning. A few locations along the I-70 corridor,
as well as areas west and north of Garden City, may even
experience wind chill values between 10 and 15 degrees (with a
2040% chance).

These unseasonably cool conditions will persist through Monday
night as a surface high builds across western Kansas. As the
surface high begins to settle into the region on late Monday,
gusty north winds will decrease, and lighter winds near the
center of the high will lead to chilly temperatures Monday night
into early Tuesday morning. CAMS remain in good agreement in
positioning the center of the surface high over south central
Kansas between 3 am and 9 am Tuesday, creating ideal conditions
for radiational cooling under clear skies. As a result, will
favor the cooler 10th to 25th percentile for lows Monday night
east of Highway 283. Further west, developing south winds in
response to falling pressures over eastern Colorado due to
improving westerly flow across the Rockies will keep
temperatures slightly higher, with lows still in the 20s but
warmer than those expected across south central Kansas.

The focus now shifts westward to the next upper level trough,
which ensemble clusters continue to show on track to cross the
Central Plains midweek. While ensembles still show some
differences in the strength and timing of this upper wave, there
is general agreement that the trough will move through the
Central Plains between Wednesday night and early Thursday
(Thanksgiving).

The 24 hour QPF differences from the ensemble mean suggest that
5060% of the clusters favor a wetter solution compared to the
grand ensemble as this system moves through midweek. However,
despite indications of a better chance for precipitation, the
progressive nature of the system still favors a low accumulation
precipitation event. This scenario is supported by ensemble
clusters 24-hour QPF probabilities, with the latest data
showing only a 20% chance of precipitation exceeding 0.1" from
this event and confined to west central and north central
Kansas.

Regarding snowfall amounts, it is too early to provide
specifics due to uncertainty in how quickly the atmosphere will
cool and the exact location of where the better forcing will be
when the rain transitions to snow. Current ensembles continue to
suggest that if any accumulating snow occurs, it will be north
and west of Dodge City, with little if any accumulations. The
NBM currently shows less than a 20% chance of snowfall totals
exceeding 0.5" along the I-70 corridor and across portions of
west central Kansas (west and north of Garden City).

Bottom line is this system midweek is a low confidence forecast
for any accumulating snow but warrants ongoing monitoring due
to holiday travel and the small potential for minor accumulating
snowfall. Latest probabilistic WSSI from WPC has only a 5-10%
for minor winter weather impacts along the I-70 corridor and
across west central Kansas.

Once the upper level trough passes, another shot of colder air
will move into southwest Kansas. This will keep temperatures
below seasonal averages, with highs in the 40s and lows in the
20s, through next weekend. Wind chills as low as 10 degrees will
be possible (20-40%) Friday morning in some areas of west
central and north central Kansas around Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 522 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

A surface cold front extended from near KDEN to KLBL and into nw
Oklahoma at 21z. High pressure from the northern High Plains
will continue pushing the front southward Tonight with stratus
clouds coming in with the colder air. So far primarily an OVC
VFR category stratus level is anticipated, which should also
begin to scattered out by late Monday morning as insolation near
peak and mixing maximizes. Winds will become more gusty after
03z as the gradient behind the front increases.



&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Russell