180
FXUS63 KDDC 191900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Our next shot at moisture is Friday afternoon and evening

- Next shot after that is Saturday and Sunday. Large uncertainty!

- Nice break from the heat next week!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A weak front is moving across the FA this early afternoon. The main
impact from this will be a wind shift as it moves through. Any storms
are expected to be well east and southeast of the FA tonight, so
a quiet weather night is expected across southwest Kansas. Winds
will eventually become light and variable tonight as high pressure
moves over the area this evening. Relatively mild lows are expected
tonight with 50s NW to 60s SE.

The mentioned front will return northward Friday and should bisect
the FA during the afternoon. A minor/weak UL wave moving through
should interact with the boundary and spark off some showers and
storms by afternoon and evening. Forecast PWATs are to be high and
above climo (90th percentile), so heavy rainfall and lightning are
the main threats with this activity. Have the highest confidence
of storms along and south of Highway 50. This seems to be the general
consensus amongst all the CAM solutions. Highs south of the front
will be hot with values in the mid to upper 90s. Farther north, it
will still be hot with values in the lower 90s. There might be a
moderate wind gust of 40 to 50 mph with the storms as well. Overall,
severe thunderstorm threat looks limited.

Attention then turns to over the weekend. A large UL low continue
to move east over the weekend and approach the state Saturday evening
into Sunday morning. Forecast PWATs during this time are modeled
to be around the 90th percentile. The UL low and low level moisture
will set the stage for heavy rainfall somewhere across the plains.
I say somewhere because there is incredibly large uncertainty in
both deterministic model solutions as well as ensemble models. Ensemble
QPF amounts from both the GEFS and EPS are all over the map in terms
of where the heavier rainfall axis will fall. Some of the ensemble
members look like they want to trend to keep the heavier rainfall
axis north of the FA. Do not have high confidence in the trend, is
this trend did not exist in yesterdays ensembles. Bottom line, someone
will see some very good rains, but the location is unclear at this
time. WPC does have an excessive rainfall outlook at marginal levels,
so the threat is there. AI models like the ECMWF-AIFS has the heavier
rainfall axis right through Dodge City. GraphCast GFS as well, with
a slight displacement to the north. Please stay tuned to the forecast
as hopefully uncertainty decreases and the models (both deterministic
and ensemble) hopefully come into better agreement. Regardless of
the moisture, it does look like we will get a welcomed break from
the heat Sunday onward... so there is that.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR is expected through TAF pd. Light NW to N winds 5-15 kt will prevail
today in the wake of a weak boundary. Winds will become light and
variable by midnight tonight. A weak warm front will lift north tomorrow
with light winds switching to light southerly 5-15 kt through much
of the day. There is a chance of storms in the late afternoon to
evening period, however, this is outside of the TAF pd.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden