967
FXUS63 KDDC 290647
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
147 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot weather is forecast through next weekend.

- There are small chances for t-storms each afternoon and
  evening across far western Kansas near the Colorado state
  line; otherwise dry weather will persist.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

An upper level ridge over the southern Rockies will migrate
eastward across the southern plains and Missouri/Arkansas
region over the next week. Thus, the northwesterly mid level
flow of late that has helped promote t-storm activity will end.
Mid level disturbances will move over the ridge across the
northern plains. These disturbances will generally help
establish a frontal zone across northern Kansas and southern
Nebraska by early next week. For the next two afternoons, mid
level zonal flow across the Rockies will result in a surface
trough in the lee of the Rockies. Isolated high-based t-storms
will develop along the trough and may impact extreme western
Kansas. Given the expected marginal instability, these storms
should be sub- severe, with 40-55 mph wind gusts possible from
Johnson to Syracuse Saturday and Sunday evenings. Very hot
weather can be expected, with highs from 100-105. Given the dry
air in place, heat indices will be at or below the actual
temperatures.

Hot weather is expected to persist through next week as the
aforementioned upper level ridge persists across the southern
United States. Any chance for t-storms will be across far
western Kansas and along I-70, with rain chances near 0% over
south central Kansas. Temperatures are forecast to meet or
exceed 100 degrees each day, except perhaps some upper 90s over
west central Kansas. The various ensemble means indicate the
upper level ridge only gradually passing eastward and flattening
out. This pattern would keep intense heat in place through next
weekend, with little in the way of rainfall. The grand ensemble
shows 0-5% chances of daily 24 hour rainfalls exceeding a
quarter of an inch through 5 September, with the 5% closer to
the Colorado state line and along I-70.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

A surface trough will strengthen across the high plains during
the period. This will result in south winds becoming southwest
and increasing to 15-20 kts by 15z with daytime heating. VFR
conditions are expected to persist, with any t-storms later in
the period remaining west of KGCK along the surface trough.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

There is an elevated risk of wildfire spread this afternoon and
Sunday afternoon given the gusty southwest winds and dry air.
Southwest winds will gust to 35-40 mph today along and east of a
line from Liberal to Jetmore to Hays, with relative humidity in
the 20-25% range.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch
FIRE WEATHER...Finch