770
FXUS63 KDDC 070400
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Peak of our rainfall event will be tonight into early tomorrow
  morning with far southwest Kansas already receiving 1/4" to
  1/2" southwest of a Johnson to Garden City to Dodge City line.
  (0.90" at the Richfield Kansas mesonet station).

- Axis of heaviest rainfall tonight/early Wednesday most likely
  Highway 56 corridor from Elkhart-Liberal up to Dodge to
  Kinsley with 1.5" to perhaps 2" along this corridor.

- Peak rainfall amounts around 2.5" (NBM 90th percentile)
  expected along the heavy rainfall axis through the end of the
  event late Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Our major rainfall event was underway mid-afternoon as the first
axis of rainfall moved in from the south earlier this morning. By
mid-afternoon the northern edge of this initial morning band
extended from near Scott City to Ness City to around Larned. The mid-
level dry intrusion that pushed up in the wake of the initial band
was beginning to fill back in with more showers upstream across the
Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle. As of 20Z (3 PM CDT), the
500mb low center was still way out southwest in New Mexico between
Albuquerque and Fort Sumner. Thus, despite the fact the mid level
dry intrusion appeared to be poking into southwest KS on water vapor
imagery, we (southwest Kansas) was still well within the lower
tropospheric cool/moist conveyor belt with impressive warm air
advection around 700mb on saturated, or near-saturated east-
southeast winds. So, as long as southwest Kansas remains in the
700mb "sweet spot" where warm/moist advection is strong to the
northeast/north of the 500mb low center, we will see further
redevelopment of organized showers and even some isolated thunder
later on tonight. As the upper level low gets closer tonight, the
rainfall rates will increase in vicinity of strongest 850-700mb
frontogenesis.

Latest short-term high resolution model simulated composite
reflectivity tied with synoptic model 700mb frontogenesis fields
support best area for moderate-heavy rain tonight extending from
roughly Elkhart-Liberal up to Dodge City and on toward Kinsley-
Larned. Along this axis, the 50th to 75th percentile NBM QPF should
hit with fairly high confidence, which is anywhere from 1.5" to a
touch over 2" for a storm-total. Isolated to widely scattered
locations within the "sweet spot" zone along the sustained
deformation axis (just north of the 500mb low track) should hit
their NBM 90th percentile QPF which is upwards of 2.5". POPs will
remain high (high Likely to Categorical) through the day Wednesday,
but after 18Z, the upper low will finally move far enough east and
fill out (weaken) such that showers will become more and more
scattered in nature.

After this storm is over, southwest Kansas will enter a drying out
period with a gradual warming trend. It will take awhile before we
see temperatures for highs in the mid to upper 80s, most likely not
until Monday or Tuesday of next week as the next upper level high
moves out across the Great Plains and is replaced by a warmer
southwest flow pattern aloft. The forecast will be dry from the end
of this current storm all the way through the end of this forecast
period (ending Tuesday). As we head into the middle to latter part
of next week, a pattern more favorable for severe weather across
Kansas may develop, which we turn our focus toward once we get out
of this current cool/rainy pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Poor flight conditions through TAF pd. An upper level disturbance
will influence all the terminals today. Widespread shra and isolated
tsra will continue. LIFR to IFR cigs and vis will also continue.
Winds will be N to NE 5-15 kt.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Sugden