723
FXUS63 KDDC 102226
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
526 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant thunderstorm chances (60-80%) tonight.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures likely tonight and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains downstream of an upper level shortwave trough
swinging east through western Colorado. Near the surface, a stalled
frontal boundary extends from the Texas Panhandle northeast through
western Oklahoma.

Another round of thunderstorms (60-80% chance) can be expected
tonight as the SREF indicates a compact upper level shortwave trough
pushing east through the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of
eastern Colorado/western Kansas early in the period. Ahead of the
approaching system, a prevailing east-northeast upslope flow will
continue to support a fairly moist air mass with surface dewpoints
holding generally in the 60s(F), although only providing moderate
instability with MLCAPE values upward of 1500 to 2000 J/kg due to
lack of recovery from the slow departure of this morning`s MCS.
Still, diurnally-driven thunderstorm storm development is likely
just lee of the Rockies as ejecting H5 vort maxima associated with
the shortwave trough interact with a broad field of steepening mid-
level lapse rates within the aforementioned upslope flow this
afternoon. Storms are then projected to spread eastward, eventually
evolving into an MCS, into west central and southwest Kansas later
this evening and eventually into central Kansas overnight as suggested
by most CAMs. The HREF also shows a broad 70-90% probability of 6-hr
QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch from west central Kansas southeast
through a portion of southwest Kansas into south central Kansas by
early Monday. The primary threat with these storms will be strong
outflow winds in excess of 60-70 mph. A few preliminary thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out late this afternoon into early evening in vicinity
of the stalled boundary closer to south central Kansas as peak heating
is realized. Any lingering showers/storms early Monday are expected
to give way to drier conditions Tuesday as the upper level shortwave
trough pushes off to the east while ridging aloft begins to build
back in across the Intermountain West.

Temperatures near the seasonal average are likely tonight as slightly
cooler air filters southwest into the area on the north side of a
near-stationary boundary to our south, not to mention cooling from
showers/thunderstorms moving through overnight. Look for lows generally
in the 60s(F) with the HREF showing a 80-90% probability of temperatures
slipping below 65F in far southwest Kansas to a 70-80% probability
of below 70F in south central Kansas. Below normal average temperatures
are forecast Monday with southwest/central Kansas remaining on the
north side of a stalled frontal boundary to our south in western Oklahoma,
as well as lingering cloud cover/precipitation from the night previous.
The cooler air mass will lower H85 temperatures to a little below
20C in central Kansas Monday to near 20C farther west. Considering
the HREF indicates a 70-80% probability of temperatures climbing above
75F in west central Kansas to a 60-80% probability of nudging above
80F in central/south central Kansas, afternoon highs may struggle
to climb out of the 70s(F) out west with the lower/mid 80s(F) farther
east. A minimal rebound to temperatures is expected Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 522 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A large complex of thunderstorms will move across southwest
Kansas and affect DDC, GCK, LBL, and to a lesser extent the HYS
airport. Thunderstorms and trailing stratiform rain will likely
affect airports for up to a five hour period late tonight. In
vicinity of and within strongest storms, expect intermittent
MVFR/IFR flight category and variable wind gusts as high as 50
knots. Conditions will improve from west to east early Monday
morning with widespread VFR flight category resuming and mainly
light and variable winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid