124
FXUS63 KDDC 051204
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
704 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of thunderstorms will affect western Kansas this
  evening, with damaging wind being the main concern.

- There are additional chances (30-50%) for thunderstorms
  Sunday and Monday.

- Warm and humid weather will persist for the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

An upper level ridge was shifting westward into the southern
Rockies. Weak disturbances and a high level jet will be situated
north of this ridge, bringing rounds of t-storms to western
Kansas during the evenings and nights through Monday.

A high level (200 mb) jet streak of 60-70 kts will be nosing
into western Kansas this afternoon. At low levels, a weak front
will stall out, with weak upslope flow developing across
eastern Colorado. Isolated t-storms are expected to form with
daytime heating along the front; and these could be marginally
severe with hail to quarter size and winds to 60 mph. After 7
pm a line of storms will move into far western Kansas and then
progress eastward during the evening. Damaging wind gusts to 60
mph are a good possibility with this line given the expected
high dewpoint depressions. It is unclear how far east this
storm line will get before weakening overnight. Temperatures
will reach into the 90s today, with the warmest readings in far
western Kansas where the air is drier. Very high dewpoints in
the lower to mid 70s will be place from Dodge City eastward,
making it feel like 100 degrees during the mid to late
afternoon.

On Sunday, a weak upper level disturbance will be traversing
the northern high plains. A 50+ kt 200mb jet streak will be
situated across the central high plains. Thunderstorms will
develop again across the high plains in the afternoon and
propagate eastward during the evening. The location and coverage
of storms is not known at this point; but the vertical wind
shear will probably be strong enough to promote storm
organization and locally severe weather, with marginally severe
hail and damaging winds being the main concerns.

Another weak disturbance will approach western Kansas Monday.
Winds will still be on the order of 50 kts at 200mb and 25 kts
at 500mb, which will again encourage storm organization. Of
course, low level shear will be weak as is normally the case in
summer, which will continue to discourage any significant
tornadic activity. But large hail and damaging winds are still
possible.

By Tuesday the high level flow will become more northwesterly.
Thunderstorms are still possible; but it`s unclear whether this
pattern will be favorable for storm organization. The upper
level pattern will amplify even more by Wednesday as an upper
level ridge expands eastward. This will tend to shunt organized,
nocturnal thunderstorm clusters eastward into central Kansas.
By Thursday night and Friday, another upper level disturbance
will approach the high plains, possibly promoting an environment
favorable for t-storm organization once again.

As long as we stay in a wet pattern, temperatures will struggle
to reach 100 if at all. The hottest temperatures will continue
to be across far western Kansas in the drier air. However, very
humid conditions from Dodge City eastward into central Kansas
will make it feel hotter even though actual temperatures won`t
be that hot.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 656 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

A weak cold front will stall near KDDC this morning. Low level
moisture in the wake of the front may result in MVFR CIGS and
visibilities at KDDC/KGCK through 14-15Z before daytime heating
erodes the cloud deck by 16Z. VFR conditions are forecast this
afternoon. However, isolated storms may form along the front by
20Z; but it is too soon to know if these will impact KDDC and
KGCK. Additional storms may move in from the west and affect
KGCK after 04-05z. Winds will generally be light through the
period outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch