449
FXUS63 KDDC 291910
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms after 5 pm and
  continuing through tonight as a cold front crosses southwest
  Kansas. Main hazards will be strong damaging winds greater
  than 65 mph and locally heavy rainfall.

- Cooler temperatures will start off the work week but a warming
  trend will return to southwest Kansas mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Early this morning, an upper level trough was situated over the
Northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front stretched from
southwest Minnesota into western Nebraska. South of this front,
an outflow boundary was observed across northern Kansas, with a
trough of low pressure extending south from this boundary across
southwest Kansas. Additionally, residual outflow boundaries
from earlier convection were also present across southwest
Kansas.

SBCIN across southwest Kansas based on SPC MESO Analysis has
been slowly eroding over the past few hours. This trend should
continue over the next few hours as as temperatures warm into
the low to mid 90s through late day. Given the presence of
multiple boundaries across the area and the potential for late
day instability/little to no CIN, the chance for a few isolated
afternoon thunderstorms exists across southwest and south
central Kansas (15-20% chance). As of 18Z today, CAMs were
struggling to identify where/if afternoon convection will occur.
Current confidence on afternoon convection is not much better.
It remains low (<20%) regarding the location and timing of these
isolated afternoon storms, if they develop. As a result,
thunderstorm chances for late this afternoon will remain very
low, and we will closely monitor satellite and current
conditions for possible development. At this time there is one
area with a greater than 60% confidence for storms late today
and early this evening and that is near and north of the I-70
corridor. This is where our surface cold front will be located,
accompanied by better shear. Similar to yesterday, any storms
that develop later this afternoon will be capable of producing
gusts of 50 to 60 mph due to high storm bases, downdraft CAPE,
and high precipitable water values. Locally heavy rainfall and
isolated hail up to quarter size cannot be ruled out from the
strongest storms.

Thunderstorm coverage will increase later tonight along the
cold front as it finally moves across southwest Kansas given the
enhanced synoptic lift from an approaching upper level trough
and improving low level forcing/frontogenesis. The environment
ahead of this cold front will remain very moist with large
downdraft CAPE, steep low level lapse rates, and high cloud
bases. Strong gusty winds will continue to be the primary risk,
with gusts potentially exceeding 65 mph. These storms will also
be accompanied by widespread rain, heavy at times, which may
lead to some localized water issues, especially in low lying
areas.

As the cold front passes late tonight, a cool dome of high
pressure will begin to build into the area from the northwest.
As this surface high crosses the Central Plains early in the
workweek, temperatures in southwest Kansas will average around
10 degrees cooler than what was experienced over the weekend.
Some locations on Monday may even be slightly cooler than this
average, due to cloud cover from an area of low level moisture
moving across western Kansas behind this cold front. The NBM
spread in high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday is 5 degrees
or less. On Monday, there is a 50% chance for highs to be less
than 85 degrees west and south of the Dodge City area. In
addition to the cloud cover Monday, the developing moist upslope
flow located north of the cold front on Monday night, will also
favor the chance for thunderstorms Monday night across portions
of far southwest Kansas and along the Kansas/Oklahoma border as
afternoon convection develops over the higher terrain of
Colorado and then moves southeast towards the Panhandle of
Oklahoma and Texas.

If you have outdoor activities planned, early next week will be
the ideal time to complete them. By mid week, an upper ridge
over the western United States will expand eastward into the
Rockies and then move out into the Plains late in the week. As
this upper ridge builds eastward, it will bring another warming
trend to western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Wind speeds this afternoon will average less than 10 knots,
with a variable wind direction. This variability is attributed
to multiple weakening surface boundaries across southwest
Kansas, remnants of overnight and early morning convection.
Despite this variability, the prevailing wind direction based on
the latest short term models will be south southeast. There is
a slight chance (<20%) for thunderstorms between 21Z today and
03z Monday however given this low probability...no mention of
thunderstorms will be included in the 18Z TAFs. The better
chance for thunderstorms will accompany a cold front as it
crosses southwest Kansas between 03Z and 09Z Monday.
Thunderstorms tonight will be capable of producing strong gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall. Once these storms and the cold
front pass, a gusty northwest wind will develop. Based on BUFR
soundings the cloud bases today and tonight will range from 3500
to 9000 feet AGL.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert