124
ACUS48 KWNS 220904
SWOD48
SPC AC 220903

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0403 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe storms are possible across parts of the central/southern High
Plains on D4/Sunday as ridging shifts east and broad southwesterly
flow overspreads the southern High Plains. Moderate to strong
instability is forecast with modest height falls and forecast
soundings show an uncapped airmass.  Scattered to widespread
thunderstorms are likely across much of the warm sector across
central Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Details of storm mode and
hazard type remain nebulous at this time. However, a focused zone of
the most likely threat area exists across northwest Texas and
southwest Oklahoma where 15% probabilities have been introduced.

Beyond Day 4, some isolated strong to severe storms will be possible
along a stalled front from the Southeast to Far West Texas.
Mid-level shortwave troughs embedded within mostly zonal flow along
this frontal zone may focus some severe weather, but significant
uncertainty exists regarding the timing and amplitude of any of
these shortwave troughs. A few damaging wind gusts will be possible
from this activity, but a more widespread threat is not anticipated.

..Bentley.. 05/22/2025