573
ACUS48 KWNS 050858
SWOD48
SPC AC 050856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The active severe-weather pattern from the southern High Plains to
the Southeast should persist into D4/Sunday. A low-amplitude
mid-level trough is progged across the Southeast with a belt of
enhanced westerlies. The degree of ongoing convection on Sunday
morning lowers confidence on how broad a region of scattered
severe-storm potential exists in the Southeast. The best area for
less-impactful morning convection appears to be across the South
Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent eastern Piedmont. Scattered
damaging winds should be the main hazard from afternoon storms in
this region.

With a brief respite in the wake of multiple MCSs on D1 to early D3,
buoyancy should become large to locally extreme across a portion of
the southern High Plains to OK/TX Red River Valley by Sunday
afternoon. Latest guidance is quite insistent on more widespread
convective development during the late afternoon into Sunday night,
along the persistent quasi-stationary front. Although
mid/upper-level winds may be weaker relative to prior days, an
increased west-northwesterly component along with the very unstable
airmass will support severe hail/wind, which could be significant.

Guidance has shown less predictability in the D5-6/Monday-Tuesday
time frame. This seems related to handling of downstream MCV
evolution from the probable Sunday night MCS over OK/TX, as well as
individual shortwave impulses embedded within the broad upper trough
over the Upper Midwest to Great Lakes. Expansive swaths of
low-probability severe are evident across the southern to eastern
states but predictability is too low for any 15 percent highlights.
By mid-week, guidance is still signaling a reduction in overall
severe potential with a synoptic pattern change to predominantly
weak shear coincident with areas of moderate to large buoyancy.

..Grams.. 06/05/2025