019
ACUS48 KWNS 010902
SWOD48
SPC AC 010900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough will traverse the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest on Friday. This will likely be the most substantial severe
weather threat during the extended period before broad, strong
ridging builds across much of the eastern/central CONUS.

...Day 4/Friday...
As a positively tilted mid-level trough traverses the northern
Plains on Friday, strong southerly flow will advect moisture
northward across a broad warm sector near the Upper Midwest. This
will result in moderate to strong instability as temperatures warm
well into the 80s. Widespread thunderstorms are likely along the
frontal zone during the afternoon/evening. 35 to 40 knots of
mid-level flow will overspread the warm sector which will provide
some shear for storm organization. However, southwesterly surface
winds will also increase during the afternoon within the warm front
and therefore, the net shear may remain somewhat minimal. Some
organized storms with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts
are possible, but the aforementioned concerns about deep-layer shear
preclude the confidence needed for 15% severe weather probabilities
at this time.

Beyond Day 4, moderate to strong instability is forecast across much
of the central and eastern CONUS with widespread thunderstorm
activity likely. However, shear will remain mostly nebulous with the
stronger mid-level flow confined to areas north of the better
instability. Therefore, some marginal regional severe weather threat
will be likely most days, but a more organized severe weather risk
appears unlikely at this time.

..Bentley.. 07/01/2025