071
ACUS48 KWNS 010854
SWOD48
SPC AC 010852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the
Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High
Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is
forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains.
Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could
pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but
limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized.

On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through
the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the
trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe
threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern
Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered
thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of
the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by
Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated
thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains
late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be
associated with isolated severe gusts and hail.

...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the
northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass
should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a
convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the
eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the
upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering
that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be
associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However,
predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues
concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes.

A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the
northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the
region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar
issues.

..Broyles.. 08/01/2025