781
ACUS48 KWNS 060853
SWOD48
SPC AC 060852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A large MCS may be ongoing across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity on
D4/Monday morning. This MCS and attendant flow enhancement with its
MCV may support scattered damaging wind potential into the afternoon
downstream across the Deep South. How extensive an organized wind
threat persists is quite nebulous, given background mid-level
westerlies being weaker across the Southeast compared to prior days.

Sub-15 percent severe potential remains apparent across the Upper OH
Valley to Lower Great Lakes on D4/Monday, shifting east into the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States on D5/Tuesday. A belt of strong
mid-level southwesterlies ahead of broad Great Lakes trough should
overlap parts of a weak cold front arcing south from a primary
surface cyclone over northeast ON to James Bay. Substantial
instability ahead of the front appears uncertain with progged weak
mid-level lapse rates and muted boundary-layer heating where the
stronger flow resides.

During D6-8/Wednesday-Friday, guidance continues to signal a
reduction in severe potential, as predominantly weak deep-layer
shear overlaps areas of moderate to large buoyancy.

..Grams.. 06/06/2025