035
ACUS48 KWNS 120738
SWOD48
SPC AC 120736

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5/Mon-Tue...

A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast
vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies.
As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any
deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed
from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.

...Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest...

A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to
the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on
Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central
Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases.
This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the
Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This
could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these
regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm
coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of
greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold
front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually,
but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional
probabilities at this time.

...Day 8/Fri...

Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the
Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing
will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a
shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central
Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support
some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large
model spread.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026