623
ACUS48 KWNS 060744
SWOD48
SPC AC 060742

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper shortwave trough will be located over TX on Day 4/Saturday.
Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the
central Rockies into the into the central Plains on Saturday. These
features will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level
northwesterly flow across the Plains. At the surface, modest
southerly low-level flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture
northward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Weak
surface cyclogenesis is possible across the central/southern Plains
and a dryline will extend across western KS/OK/TX. This could be a
focus for thunderstorm development on Saturday. However, how far
north quality moisture return will occur (especially before Saturday
night/early Sunday) is uncertain. Additionally, deep-layer flow is
not forecast to be very strong. While some strong to severe
thunderstorms could develop, confidence is too low to include severe
probabilities.

By Day 5/Sunday, a large scale upper trough over the Plains will
shift east, extending from the lower Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf
by Monday morning. A surface low will move from the Midwest to the
eastern U.S. while a trailing cold front develops southeast across
the southern Plains and the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Ahead of
the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the south-central
to Southeast U.S. However, it is uncertain how much destabilization
will occur as widespread precipitation and cloud cover are possible.
Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop, but
predictability is low at this time.

Heading into Days 6-8/Mon-Wed, mean troughing is likely to continue
across the East with broad northwesterly flow across the Plains. The
cold frontal passage on Sunday will likely suppress Gulf moisture on
Monday. Another cold front is forecast to move across portions of
the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday and any severe potential will
depend on timing and quality of moisture return into the central
U.S., which is uncertain. Overall, predictability is low late in the
forecast period.

..Leitman.. 05/06/2026