850
ACUS48 KWNS 160849
SWOD48
SPC AC 160847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5...
A large-scale mid-level trough and an associated cold front are
forecast to move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday.
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the central Gulf Coast
states and Tennessee Valley at the start of the period. This
convection should have a negative impact on instability across the
much of the moist sector during the day. In areas that are not
impacted, weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the front
from Georgia and the Carolinas into the central Appalachians. The
instability combined with strong large-scale ascent and moderate to
strong deep-layer shear will likely result in a severe threat. A
potential for wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible. At
this time, uncertainty is substantial as to exactly where the
greatest severe potential will occur. As new runs come in, an
upgrade to Slight may be needed.

A mid-level low is forecast to move across the Northeast on Monday,
as the associated trough moves into the western Atlantic.
Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in
parts of southern New England during the late morning and early
afternoon before the front moves offshore.

...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
On Tuesday and Wednesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move
from the Mississippi Valley into the western Atlantic, as flow
becomes west-northwesterly across much of the eastern and northern
U.S. By Thursday, a mid-level low is forecast to develop in the
Desert Southwest. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this
system on Thursday across parts of the Four Corners region and
southern Rockies. However, uncertainty concerning the timing and
strength of this system is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 10/16/2025