016
ACUS48 KWNS 040732
SWOD48
SPC AC 040730

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Large-scale upper troughing is expected to envelop much of the
eastern half of the CONUS for most of the forecast period. On Day
4/Thu, a surface cold front is expected to extend from the southern
Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf coast and southern TX. The front
should largely move offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and over
northern FL by early Day 5/Fri. A moist airmass will be in place
ahead of the front and some severe thunderstorm potential could
develop. However, 15 percent or greater coverage is uncertain given
deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary, cloud cover and areas of
showers/thunderstorms early Thursday, and large-scale ascent lifting
northeast away from better low-level moisture.

Severe potential appears low Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Boundary layer
moisture will be limited due to the prior cold frontal passage and
surface high pressure in its wake. Some guidance suggests a weak
shortwave trough will migrate across the southern Rockies and
southern Plains on Friday, resulting in lee troughing and some Gulf
moisture return across TX Friday night into Saturday. This could
bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms across portions for TX
and perhaps the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, though severe potential
is uncertain given large model spread. By early next week, another
period of moisture return ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting from
the Rockies into the Plains/Midwest could bring another bout of
severe potential ahead of a cold front from the southern Plains to
the Southeast. However, timing and intensity of these features
varies across control, AI, and ensemble guidance, resulting in low
predictability.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026