Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
318 ACUS48 KWNS 080840 SWOD48 SPC AC 080839 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance consensus continues to indicate a broad upper trough progressing into the West early next week, and then reaching the central states around mid-week. Nevertheless, 00Z ensemble spread remains large with both the degree of trough amplification and spatiotemporal details. The GEFS has trended towards less amplification over the West, instead favoring later over the Upper Midwest. The ECMWF ensemble mean favors greater amplification over the West, which is supported by its deterministic parent and UKMET/CMC guidance. Run-to-run continuity is poor with the degree/location of cyclogenesis east of the Rockies. With greater confidence in a surface ridge holding across the northern Gulf, modified moisture return appears more likely to be limited in the southern to central Great Plains through D5/Tuesday. The breadth of the warm-moist sector will probably enlarge by D6/Wednesday, yielding concern for some severe potential over the south-central states. But given poor predictability of synoptic-scale details, consideration of an area is premature. ..Grams.. 11/08/2024