698
ACUS48 KWNS 080857
SWOD48
SPC AC 080855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
A broad cyclonic mid-level flow pattern is forecast from the upper
Mississippi Valley into the Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At
the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place over most of
the eastern half of the nation with a quasi-stationary front located
from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great
Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F
will likely result in the development of moderate to strong
instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to
develop each afternoon in areas where low-level convergence becomes
maximized. Outflow boundaries will be important in determining where
the greatest convective coverage ends up being. In addition to the
instability, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over much of this
moist airmass suggesting that an isolated wind-damage threat will be
possible. However, the lack of any appreciable mid-level shortwave
trough introduces considerable uncertainty.

...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8...
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow is forecast to become
westerly over much of the northern U.S, with a front located from
the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and
evening near this front. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F to the south
of the front, along with moderate to strong instability will make
isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening.
However, spatial uncertainty concerning any potential severe threat
is considerable at this range.

..Broyles.. 08/08/2026