970
ACUS48 KWNS 210811
SWOD48
SPC AC 210809

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Sunday - D5/Monday...
A cold front that moves into the eastern CONUS on Sunday may tend to
slow down, as a reinforcing shortwave moves through the base of a
deep mid/upper-level trough covering the region. Scattered storms
will be possible from the Northeast into the central/southern
Appalachians on D4/Sunday, though with only modest instability and
deep-layer shear forecast to be in place, any severe potential may
remain isolated. Stronger deep-layer flow/shear is generally
forecast to overspread parts of the Northeast/New England on
D5/Monday, though with generally weak instability expected, severe
potential is uncertain.

Scattered storms will also be possible on Sunday and Monday across
the CO Front Range vicinity into the central High Plains, within a
persistent post-frontal regime. While details are uncertain, strong
to isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out, especially if any
organized clustering can develop and emerge into parts of the High
Plains.

...D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday...
While typical model spread is noted by Days 6-8, guidance generally
depicts relatively limited severe potential into the middle of next
week, as an expansive surface ridge suppresses richer low-level
moisture to parts of the Gulf Coast and Texas. Some guidance shows
potential for recovery by D8/Thursday across parts of the
southern/central Plains, but deep-layer flow is generally forecast
to remain weak to modest across the region.

..Dean.. 08/21/2025