138
ACUS48 KWNS 240858
SWOD48
SPC AC 240857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with the overall pattern through
Tuesday/D8, depicting a low-amplitude trough moving from the
northwestern states on Friday/D4 across the northern tier of states
and toward the Great Lakes by around Sunday/D6. This wave is then
forecast to amplify across Ontario/Quebec through the end of the
period, with cooler/more stable air pushing south with a cold front
from the Midwest into the Northeast.

Severe storms are currently forecast over parts of the Dakotas into
northwest MN on Friday/D4 as the stronger flow aloft interacts with
a moist and unstable air mass already in place. Damaging winds
appear the most likely mode of severe, along with sporadic large
hail as storms form during the afternoon within a surface trough,
and beneath increasing winds aloft. While severe storms may also
occur on Saturday/D5 over parts of the northern Plains or upper MS
Valley, predictability is lower given expected storms the previous
day and potential for long-lived convective systems. However, given
such strong instability forecast on Saturday/D5, a risk area is
likely to be issued in later outlook cycles over parts of the upper
Midwest/MS Valley.

Elsewhere, daily thunderstorms within the moist and unstable air
mass are forecast for the bulk of CONUS from the Plains eastward,
though in a generally weak shear environment. Portions of those
areas may see low/marginal probabilities as the events enter into
the Day 3 outlook time frame.

..Jewell.. 06/24/2025