827
ACUS48 KWNS 220939
SWOD48
SPC AC 220938

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with the general pattern on Mon/D4,
depicting a midlevel speed max nosing into the central Plains Monday
morning, then phasing with an upper trough over the northern Plains.
This should then result in an amplified shortwave trough moving
across the Midwest and Great Lakes through Tue/D5 morning. An
associated cold front will shunt the young moist plume back south
toward the Gulf Coast.

This trough is then expected to eject northeastward toward Quebec
into Tue/D5, with a zonal flow regime across the CONUS on Wed/D6,
with slow moisture return.

Beyond this time frame, subtle differences exist regarding how
quickly the pattern may amplify, as ridging occurs over the West,
and a possible trough develops from the southern Plains into the
southeastern states. Any appreciable low-level moisture return and
destabilization would likely be tied to such a trough amplification,
which is low predictability. In short, a non-zero threat of severe
storms may develop over parts of the Gulf Coast states, Thu/D7 into
Fri/D8, as moisture increases and flow aloft remains strong.

..Jewell.. 11/22/2024