313
ACUS48 KWNS 100853
SWOD48
SPC AC 100851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
From Monday to Wednesday at mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to
remain over the central U.S., as a low moves into southern
California. Southwest flow is forecast over the Intermountain West
and Rockies. A chance for thunderstorms is expected to develop early
in the week ahead of the system, with a marginal severe threat
possible each afternoon across parts of Four Corners region. Any
severe threat should remain localized due to weak instability.

...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
A shortwave trough is forecast to eject northeastward across the
central Rockies on Thursday, and into the northern Plains on Friday.
Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this trough, and in the
central Rockies Thursday afternoon. A severe threat could develop if
enough instability is realized ahead of the system. A secondary
trough is forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Friday.
Isolated severe storms could occur ahead of this feature Friday
afternoon and evening, primarily in the southern Rockies. Although
this scenario on Thursday and Friday could pan out, the models
differ on the timing of the trough sequence. Also, instability is
forecast to be relatively weak. These factors suggest uncertainty,
and point to a more localized severe potential.

..Broyles.. 10/10/2025