100
ACUS48 KWNS 240933
SWOD48
SPC AC 240932

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Run-to-run model trends indicate generally faster solutions to the
evolving upper trough forecast to move across the central and
eastern CONUS.

On Wed/D4, a positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the upper
MS Valley into the Plains, with 500 mb speed max over 70 kt. This
feature is now forecast to be over the OH/TN Valley by 12Z Thu/D5,
with attendant cold front roughly from WV to southern MS/LA at that
time.

Given this trough speed and geometry, winds around 850 mb will be
west-southwest to west at 40-50 kt. Elevated thunderstorms seem
likely given the antecedent dry air mass in place ahead of the
returning low-level moisture, most notably from KY/TN southward into
northern MS/AL/GA through 12Z Thu/D5. Surface-based storms may
develop across southern areas late along the front, with non-zero
damaging-gust potential given substantial deep-layer shear and wind
magnitude.

ECMWF-based solutions indicate much less storm coverage going into
Thu/D5 as the front accelerates across the Southeast, though some
lingering storms may be ongoing along the front early. Given these
trends, no severe areas will be issued.

..Jewell.. 11/24/2024