468
ACUS48 KWNS 020959
SWOD48
SPC AC 020958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly
across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located
in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is
forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be
mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures
warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to
develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas
north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western
Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is
forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely
support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells
with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be
possible.

On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts
of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects
northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass
with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon
from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri
Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered
thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the
afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level
lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind
damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and
bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will
persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across
the region.

...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the
south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward
across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front,
the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest
that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition,
moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern
edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe
threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from
west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.

The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the
western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday
afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible.
Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any
potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move
over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This
scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon.
However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026