337
ACUS48 KWNS 240853
SWOD48
SPC AC 240852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern
and central Plains into the Southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. A
moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place on both days
from the Texas Hill Country eastward into the central Gulf Coast
states. During the day on Tuesday and Wednesday, deep-layer shear
across this airmass is forecast to be marginal for organized severe
thunderstorms. However, an isolated severe threat will be possible
in areas that strongly destabilize. Steep low-level lapse rates
could support severe gusts with storm-scale line segments that form
from afternoon into the overnight period.

Further west into the southern and central High Plains, an axis of
moderate instability is forecast to develop Wednesday afternoon from
eastern New Mexico into southeastern Colorado. Thunderstorms that
move off the higher terrain could develop an isolated severe threat.

...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Ark-La-Tex
on Thursday. Scattered thunderstorm will be possible near and ahead
of the trough during the day from central and north Texas
southeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. If a storm-scale
convective system can become organized, then a swath of wind damage
will be possible. However, predictability remains low concerning
this potential.

On Friday and Saturday, a strong cold front is forecast to move
southward through the Gulf Coast states and into the Gulf of
America. Behind the front, a relatively dry air mass over much of
the central and eastern U.S. is expected to limit severe
thunderstorm potential.

..Broyles.. 05/24/2025