931
ACUS48 KWNS 190747
SWOD48
SPC AC 190746

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Wed - Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...

An upper trough will lift northeast across the region on Wednesday.
At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from roughly the
Hudson Valley to the central Appalachians at the beginning of the
period. Within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the surface
front, widespread showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across
parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in uncertainty
regarding northward extent of severe potential. For now, the 15
percent severe probability has been confined to portions of the
southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas ahead of the surface trough/cold
front. A very moist airmass will be in place across the region, and
25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes are forecast. Thunderstorm
clusters or linear bands are expected to move across the region
through evening, posing mainly a risk for damaging winds.

...Days 5-8/Thu-Sun...

Severe potential is expected to be lower late in the week into the
weekend. An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S., but
deep-layer flow will be weak. Further west, the subtropical high
will intensify over the Plains and into the Four Corners vicinity
while the associated amplified upper ridge persists northward into
the Canadian Prairies. As boundary layer moisture spreads northward
beneath the upper ridge, some severe potential could develop each
day across parts of the High Plains. However, this will largely be
driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer lead
times. Overall, the intense upper ridge should largely suppress
greater severe potential.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2026