451
FNUS28 KWNS 282140
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing is forecast to continue across portions of the
Pacific Northwest through much of the workweek, with the main
upper-level low remaining offshore. On Day 3/Thursday, a strong and
well-defined mid-level shortwave will rotate through the base of the
trough and over the region within southwest flow aloft. This feature
will promote thunderstorm chances with minimal precipitation across
the Northern Rockies amid a receptive fuelscape. Thereafter,
long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the
aforementioned upper-level low will move onshore this weekend,
yielding dry and breezy conditions across the Northwest and Northern
Rockies. Early next week, model guidance begins to differ in the
progression of the overall upper pattern, with some solutions
depicting a ridge to rebuild over the western CONUS, while others
portray weak northwesterly flow across the Pacific Northwest.
Regardless, trends will continue to be monitored.

...Northwestern US...
Wet/dry thunderstorm chances return on Day 3/Thursday as a shortwave
trough impinges upon the region. Ample instability, a dry boundary
layer, and sufficient mid-level moisture support 10% dry
thunderstorm probabilities. A lingering dry boundary layer and warm
daytime temperatures are expected to increase fuel receptivity
(forecast ERCs approaching the 95th percentile), enhancing concerns
for new lightning ignitions. Gusty winds and a dry airmass return to
the Pacific Northwest this weekend as the offshore trough moves
inland, with greater potential for critical fire conditions to
materialize -- especially where strong winds/low RH overlap areas
where preceding days of thunderstorms may result in holdover
ignitions. As such, 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained
on Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday.

...Southern High Plains...
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of the
southern High Plains on Day 3/Thursday; however, fuels guidance
suggests the fuelscape remains mostly mixed, precluding the
introduction of probabilities. Nevertheless, daytime RH values of
15-20% and sustained southerly winds of 15-20 mph should promote
locally elevated fire weather concerns where pockets of dry fuels
exist.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/28/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$