144
FNUS28 KWNS 102118
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0416 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

An extended period of critical fire-weather conditions is expected
across much of the southern Plains through the extended forecast
period. The day of greatest concern is Day 5/Friday, when high-end
critical to extremely critical conditions appear likely.

...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday - Southern Plains...
A robust low-latitude shortwave trough and strong midlevel westerly
flow will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains on Day
3/Wednesday. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind an associated dryline
and a tightening surface pressure gradient will favor critical
fire-weather conditions across the southern Plains. Thereafter, a
highly amplified large-scale trough will track eastward across the
West, resulting in a deepening lee trough and dry/windy conditions
across the southern High Plains on Day 4/Thursday -- where critical
conditions are expected. The 70-percent Critical probabilities for
Day 4/Thursday may need to be expanded northward into the central
High Plains if guidance comes into better agreement with the overlap
of strong surface winds and low RH.

...Day 5/Friday - Southern Plains...
In the base of the highly amplified large-scale trough, a 100+ kt
west-southwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the southern and
central Plains, while a related surface cyclone rapidly deepens over
the central High Plains. South of the surface cyclone and west of a
related dryline, 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with
gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) will overlap single-digit to lower teens
RH across portions of the southern Plains. Given increasingly
dry/receptive fuels, high-end critical to extremely critical
conditions can be expected.

...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday - Southern Plains...
On the backside of the amplified midlevel trough, a reinforcing
midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains, favoring
another day of critical conditions on Day 6/Saturday. Substantial
differences among the medium-range guidance limits forecast
confidence thereafter, though the overall pattern should support
continued fire-weather concerns on Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, with
critical conditions possible both days (especially Day 8/Monday).

..Weinman.. 03/10/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$