709
FNUS28 KWNS 092223
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

...Synopsis...
Following the flattening of the upper ridge across the northwestern
CONUS, high pressure over the Four Corners will gradually translate
eastward early next week. Residual dry and breezy conditions will
persist across portions of the Great Basin and Wyoming plains
through Day 3/Tuesday, in addition to the southern Plains as high
pressure centers atop the region midweek. As monsoonal moisture
continues to advect northward, daily chances for thunderstorms are
expected throughout in the Desert Southwest, Great Basin, and
Colorado Rockies. Mid to late week, guidance depicts a pattern shift
with a trough forming off the West Coast and a shortwave trough
approaching the Pacific Northwest, indicating thunderstorm potential
as a result of the overall upper pattern.

...Day 3/Tuesday...
...Portions of the Intermountain West...
Stronger upper-level flow will continue across the flattened ridge,
sustaining a pattern of dry and breezy conditions atop exceptionally
dry fuels. 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day
3/Tuesday across the northern Great Basin and Wyoming plains to
account for a broader, prolonged fire weather threat. These
conditions could also encourage any lightning-induced holdovers to
emerge, resulting from preceding days of forecast dry thunderstorms.

High pressure residing over the Four Corners region will slowly
drift eastward with the northern fringes of monsoonal moisture
remaining over northern Nevada and Utah. Higher PWATs and slower
storm motions will increase precipitation efficiency, providing some
relief to a stressed fuelscape. However, a lightning ignition within
dry fuels cannot be ruled out on the periphery of much desired
rainfall.

...Day 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday...
...Northeastern Washington, Idaho Panhandle, and northwestern
Montana...
A shortwave trough will impinge upon the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies midweek with an accompanying plume of moisture.
Ensemble guidance depicts greater instability across the region amid
stronger westerly flow aloft, promoting thunderstorm potential.
Given a prolonged dry airmass and a receptive fuelscape, lightning
ignitions are possible where favorable rainfall accumulations are
unlikely. As such, 10% Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been
included where less precipitation efficiency is expected, and
forecast ERCs remain at the 80-95th percentiles.

...Northern California...
Troughing is forecast to form offshore the California Coast early in
the forecast period, settling over the western CONUS mid to late
week as the Four Corners high shifts eastward. Monsoonal moisture
will advect northward, combining with daytime instability to
generate thunderstorm potential. Ensembles indicate more sufficient
instability and higher cloud bases in the northern California higher
terrain/adjacent foothills, enhancing concerns for lightning-induced
ignitions within the receptive fuelscape. As such, 10% Dry
Thunderstorm probabilities were introduced on Day 5/Thursday.

...Southern High Plains...
High pressure will center over the Central U.S. on Day 4/Wednesday,
and will continue to slide eastward through the forecast period.
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will persist across portions of
western Oklahoma, the TX/OK Panhandles, and southwestern Kansas
where fuels are growing increasingly receptive. 40% Critical
probabilities remain on Day 3/Tuesday, and have been introduced on
Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$