558
FNUS28 KWNS 132055
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest
before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D4/Saturday
and D5/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers
and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the
western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D5/Sunday,
monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona
and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry
thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin
into the Northern Rockies.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four
Corners region, isolated dry thunderstorms will continue on the
fringe of the deeper moisture surge across portions of
central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming. Storm
motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75"
yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these
regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and
recorded drought conditions.

Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for
less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in
northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of
probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D2-D4
(Thursday-Saturday) is known.

...Dry/Windy...
Weak troughing over the west amid deeply mixed profiles will lead to
overlap of dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great
Basin into the northern Rockies on D3/Friday. Though winds are
mainly Elevated, several days of isolated dry thunderstorm activity,
low humidity, and recent fire activity encourage inclusion a 40
percent region for D3.

..Thornton.. 08/13/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$