047
FNUS28 KWNS 222156
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

An upper-level trough will support breezy and dry conditions across
portions of the Southwest through Day 4/Sunday, promoting an
Elevated to locally Critical fire weather threat with dry fuels in
place. An upper-level trough will bring cooler temperatures and some
precipitation to the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies for the
Day 5-6/Monday-Tuesday time frame. An overall ridging pattern sets
up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next week supporting above
normal temperatures but light winds for much of the region. Residual
mid-level moisture under the ridge combined with daytime
heating/instability should support convection/isolated thunderstorms
in higher terrain across the Central and Northern Rockies Day
6-8/Tuesday-Thursday, although higher terrain fuels should remain
largely unavailable for significant fire spread, limiting ignition
efficiency.

...Southwest...
Primary fire weather concern remains across the Southwest U.S.
through at least Day 4/Sunday. An upper-level trough with associated
accelerated mid-level southwest flow will bring another period of
dry and breezy conditions to portions of the Southwest on Day
3/Saturday. Given the rather diffuse and broad mid-level flow, a 40
percent Critical probability was maintained for portions of the
Upper Colorado River Basin, Mogollon Rim and southwestern New
Mexico. The fire weather threat shifts farther south and east into
southern New Mexico and far West Texas by Day 4/Sunday as the trough
ejects into the Great Plains by Day 5/Monday.

..Williams.. 05/22/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$