949
FNUS28 KWNS 082156
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 161200Z

...Synopsis...
Larger scale upper-level troughing will likely remain anchored over
the eastern U.S. at least through the middle of next week. Farther
west, upper-level ridging and associated warm and dry surface
conditions will continue well into next week, aiding in drying fuels
west of the Continental Divide. An embedded short wave at the apex
of the broader ridge axis and surface trough development across
portions of northern High Plains should present a fire weather
concern for portions of the northern High Plains on Day 4/Monday.
Longer term ensemble guidance suggests a more progressive wave
pattern emerging for the latter half of next week with ridging
shifting into the central U.S. while with another upper-level
entering the Pacific Northwest as early as Day 6/Wednesday,
potentially bringing breezy and dry conditions to much of the Great
Basin as well as high based convection to portions of the CO River
Basin.

...Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday - Northern High Plains into Upper
Midwest...
An upper-level short wave and associated surface lee troughing
across the Dakotas should promote breezy west/northwest winds of up
to 20 mph to much of eastern MT into western ND on Day 4/Monday.
Lack of recent significant rainfall has aided in drying fuels across
the Northern Plains. The dry and breezy conditions along with
receptive fuels supports introduction of 40% critical probabilities
into eastern MT and far western ND. The fire weather threat shifts
eastward into the Upper Midwest for Day 5/Tuesday as a surface low
deepens and moves into the Great Lakes region. However, preceding
precipitation may limit impact of dry, post frontal conditions
across this region.

...Day 6/Wednesday - Colorado River Basin and Great Basin...
Several days of anomalously warm temperatures and low RH will aid in
drying fuels across the western U.S. before the next upper-trough
impinges on the Pacific Northwest as early as Day 5/Tuesday.
Increasing south to southwest flow ahead of the trough should
support an increasing fire weather threat to portions of the Great
Basin and Desert Southwest. In addition, mid to upper-level Pacific
moisture within a supportive upper-level environment could bring
some high-based showers and thunderstorms to portions of the CO
River Basin and eastern Great Basin Day 6/Wednesday. However,
forecast uncertainty remains in timing of the next trough which
precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time.

..Williams.. 05/08/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$