532
FNUS28 KWNS 092202
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

...Day 3/Tuesday - Central/Western TX and eastern NM...
A deep mid-level trough across the eastern U.S. will shift eastward
offshore on Day 3/Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure moving into
the Southeast along with lee troughing across the Central Plains
will promote increasing south-southwest winds across much of the
Southern Plains. Scant boundary layer moisture scoured out by recent
a frontal passage, warmer temperatures and breezy southerly winds
amid dry fuels, will likely support enhanced fire weather concerns
across central/northern TX on Day 3/Tuesday. A subtle mid-level
impulse within existing deep layer west-northwest flow should
enhance dry, downslope flow across eastern NM Tuesday ahead of an
approaching cold front. 40% critical probabilities were extended
into western TX/eastern NM to highlight the potential farther west.

...Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday...
Relatively benign fire weather conditions emerge for Day 4/Wednesday
across much of the CONUS as surface pressure gradients relax over
regions in the south where warmer temperatures and drier fuels
remain, limiting overall concerns. Dry and breezy conditions return
to portions of the Southern Plains late week as a more progressive
mid-level wave pattern materializes, resulting in increasing
mid-level flow over the Southwest ahead of a trough impacting the
West Coast. Lee trough development at the surface across the
northern/central High Plains should bring stronger
southerly/southwesterly flow back into portions of the Southern High
Plains on Day 6/Friday. Lack of recent substantial rainfall and
additional cured fuels from recent frost/freeze events could provide
a more supportive fuelscape for wildfire growth. Higher confidence
of increased fire weather potential exists in far eastern NM and the
TX Panhandle where 40% probabilities for critical fire weather
conditions were introduced, although fire weather risk could extend
beyond this initial area given the favorable synoptic weather setup.


...Day 7-8/Saturday-Sunday...
Stronger winds and dry conditions could again align on Day
7/Saturday as the robust mid-level low ejects into the Southern
Plains, particularly across eastern NM and West TX. However,
incipient Central Plains lee cyclogenesis as the mid-level trough
ejects into the Southern Plains could reduce the fire weather threat
by ushering in deeper Gulf moisture and subsequent rainfall.
Uncertainty in timing of the mid-level trough, potential cloud cover
and western extent of deeper Gulf moisture precludes introduction of
probabilities for the weekend.

..Williams.. 11/09/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$