Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 152129
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0427 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper-low over northern CA and attendant mid-level jet over the
Great Basin will sustain fire weather concerns across portions of NV
for D3/Thursday. Higher-based showers and thunderstorms are expected
over portions of northern CA and OR D3/Thursday, and the northern
Rockies on D4/Friday as the low pivots northeastward, but marginal
fuels should suppress new ignitions across this region. Additional
showers and thunderstorms amid deeper atmospheric moisture across
the Southwest are forecast across the Four Corners region into the
central Rockies, further quelling fire weather concerns through the
weekend across much of the Intermountain West.

Anomalously strong upper ridging across the southeastern U.S. will
keep above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions over the
Southern Plains and Lower MS River Valley through at least
D5/Saturday. This should keep quite receptive fuels in place
although alignment of winds and sufficiently low daytime RH should
limit a broader fire weather threat across this region. A cold front
and associated much needed rainfall should push into the
central/southern Plains early next week temporarily reducing overall
fire weather threat for Days 5-8/Sunday-Tuesday.

...Day 3/Thursday - Central Nevada...
A ~50 knot mid-level jet pivots into the Great Basin as an upper low
meanders over northern CA on D3/Thursday. A corridor of dry
southwesterly flow with wind speeds of up to 20 mph and RH around
15% will yield a fire weather threat across portions of central NV
where 40% critical probabilities were maintained.

..Williams.. 09/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$