364
FNUS28 KWNS 162011
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger over the
weekend and into early next week across parts of the southern High
Plains. Long-range guidance continues to depict the amplification of
an upper trough over the Southwest this weekend before ejecting into
the Plains early next week. As this occurs, dry southwesterly flow
should overspread much of the Southwest/southern High Plains, which
will promote multiple days of fire weather concerns. After the
ejection of this wave, ensemble guidance suggests low-amplitude
long-wave ridging will become established over the central CONUS.
This should promote muted surface pressure gradient winds along with
isolated rain chances for most regions with the exception of the
Great Basin and Southwest.

...D3/Sunday and D4/Monday - Southern High Plains...
Southwesterly flow over the southern/central Rockies will promote
lee troughing along the southern High Plains through early next
week. To the west of a sharpening dryline, west/southwesterly
downslope flow will promote multiple days of dry/windy conditions
with afternoon RH values expected to fall into the single digits to
low teens with 15-25 mph winds. Widespread elevated to critical fire
weather conditions are expected both afternoons as mid-level
impulses propagate into the Plains and result in an eastward surge
of the dryline. The fire weather threat should be greatest across
south-central NM into far West TX where ERCs are currently between
the 80th to 95th percentile. With northward and eastward extent,
ongoing spring green up should modulate the potential for fire
spread.

...D3/Sunday and D4/Monday - Sacramento Valley...
Dry northerly winds are expected through the Sacramento Valley both
D3/Sun and D4/Mon. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance
suggests winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH values falling
into the 20-30% range. Elevated fire weather conditions are
possible, and some fire threat may materialize given ERCs increasing
to near the 80th percentile. However, confidence in
sustained/widespread critical conditions remains too limited for
highlights at this time.

..Moore.. 05/16/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$