392
FNUS28 KWNS 172127
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday
will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating
northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire
weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far
southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold
front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold
front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The
probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40
percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and
associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will
mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day
7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing
pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating
a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the
Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high
enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time.

Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through
at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the
east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state.
Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida
already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present
at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida
Peninsula into the middle of next week.

..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$