855
FNUS28 KWNS 162200
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

...Day 3-5/Monday-Wednesday...
An expanding and strengthening mid-level ridge over the Four Corners
region will bring above normal temperatures but relatively light
winds to much of the Intermountain West through the midweek.
Mid-level troughing across the Pacific Northwest is expected to
begin translating northeastward along the northern periphery of the
ridge by Day 5/Wednesday, inviting drier conditions to filter into
the Northwestern U.S. Ridge positioning will also usher in a
northward surge of elevated monsoon moisture into the Desert
Southwest by Day 4/Tuesday and by Day 5/Wednesday across the Eastern
Great Basin. A dry boundary layer in place across the Four Corners
and Great Basin regions will support limited rainfall from higher
terrain convection and thunderstorms. Fuels are expected to remain
quite dry and receptive across this region with a particular threat
from new lightning ignitions. A 10 percent probability area for dry
thunderstorms was introduced for Day 5/Wednesday. Farther north, the
mid-level trough could support additional thunderstorms across
portions of the central/northern ID and western MT Day
4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday but some uncertainty regarding antecedent
rainfall distribution along with marginal fuel dryness precludes
introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time.

...Day 6-8/Thursday-Saturday...
Deeper monsoon moisture moving into Great Basin, with PWATs around
1.00 inch as well as rising surface dewpoints/relative humidity,
should begin to limit dry lightning potential late in the week
across the Great Basin and Four Corners regions with at least some
wetting rains expected. Nonetheless, multiple days of higher terrain
showers and thunderstorms will expand across much of the
Intermountain West late next week. Lighter winds overall are
expected under a building ridge over the Western U.S. along with
steadily increasing temperatures, particularly across the western
coastal states. A thermal trough begins to set up across CA late
next week, further drying fuelscapes across the region as
temperatures reach into the 100s in valley/interior locations.

..Williams.. 08/16/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$