406
FNUS28 KWNS 172128
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0426 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

...Synopsis...
A weakening upper-level trough will push into the central Plains by
D4/Sunday with associated precipitation expected across the Northern
Rockies and northern Plains through the weekend. Dry southerly flow
in advance cold front will sustain a fire weather threat over
portions of the Southern Plains D3/Saturday. The cold front and
related precipitation will bring some temporary relief to the
Southern Plains beginning D4/Sunday. Hot and mostly dry conditions
under an upper ridge are likely through the middle of next week
across the lower MS River Valley but prevailing light winds should
keep overall fire weather concerns suppressed. Stronger southwest
winds could return to portions of the Pacific Northwest and Great
Basin late next week as a potential upper trough evolves but an
expected marginal fuelscape should limit the fire weather threat for
the region.

...Day 3/Saturday...
A tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front
should support south-southwest winds of 10-15 mph by Saturday
afternoon over portions of the Southern Plains. The winds coupled
with lower daytime RH and receptive fuels (ERCs in the 90-95th
percentile range) will promote a fire weather threat for portions of
southwestern OK and northwestern TX. Model guidance shows a corridor
of lower surface dewpoints across eastern OK where RH could fall to
or below 20% Saturday afternoon as temperatures climb to near 100F.
Thus, extended 40% critical probabilities into portions of eastern
OK to cover this drier air mass. Conditions will improve overall
across the Southern Plains beginning D4/Sunday as the cold front
progresses southward bringing much needed rain to some locations and
cooler temperatures to the region.

..Williams.. 09/17/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$