252
FNUS28 KWNS 062202
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the
extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to
transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into
early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will
intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains.
To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as
it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing
over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions
will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains,
Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper
fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in
the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy
conditions to emerge over the western US.

...Northern Plains/Rockies...
As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of
Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern
Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A
cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass
across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While
model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy
conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High
Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated
fire-weather conditions are possible.

...Great Basin and Southwest...
The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting
the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing
to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and
Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to
model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several
preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing
potential for fire-weather conditions.

Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest
ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical
vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support
isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again
details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning
could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the
forecast period.

..Lyons.. 06/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$