742
FNUS28 KWNS 222112
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 021200Z

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the
remainder of February. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to
show persistent upper ridging across the western CONUS through the
remainder of the month before a possible transition to a more
progressive pattern (characterized by high amplitude trough
intrusions into the Southwest) by early March. In the meantime, this
synoptic regime will favor dry conditions across the southern Great
Basin into the Four Corners and southern Plains with light/scattered
rain/snow chances elsewhere through the upcoming week. Additionally,
a return to seasonal/above-seasonal temperatures is anticipated for
much of the Southwest and High Plains, which should aid in gradual
fuel drying where snow cover is minimal. Fire weather concerns could
emerge across the southern High Plains where fuels have already been
slowly drying (denoted by a slow uptick in ERCs) and winds may
increase into the mid/upper teens early next week as low-amplitude
upper disturbances pass over region. Deterministic solutions suggest
that D3/Monday may see the best potential for elevated to locally
critical fire weather conditions, but spread in ensemble guidance
limits confidence in the potential for critical fire weather
conditions. More robust fire weather concerns are possible beginning
around D7/Friday and beyond as the upper-level regime becomes more
progressive, but considerable spread in both deterministic and
ensembles at this range limits forecast confidence.

..Moore.. 02/22/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$