Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
687 FNUS28 KWNS 112144 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... An upper trough will translate east-northeastward from the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday into the Upper Midwest by Day 4/Monday. In response, broader dry west/southwest flow develops across portions of the Great Basin on Day 3/Sunday, with fire weather concerns potentially lingering into parts of the northern Rockies on Day 4/Monday. Another mid/upper trough enters the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Tuesday, possibly bringing dry and breezy conditions back to the Great Basin. A stagnant upper-level ridge over the southern CONUS will continue to promote above normal temperatures across much of the southern/central Plains through next week. Fire weather concerns east of the Continental Divide next week should be confined to portions of the Southern Plains where daily southerly winds and dry fuels align although forecast uncertainty in RH reductions limits predictability of fire weather impacts. ...Day 3/Sunday - Great Basin into southwestern Montana... Pre-frontal southwest winds of 15-20 mph amid a well mixed boundary layer and minimum RH of around 15% will present a broad fire weather threat to the Great Basin into portions of ID and southwest MT on Day 3/Sunday. As the upper-trough and related dry cold front shift eastward, a west to northwest wind shift will present an additional fire weather hazard to existing wildfires, before cooler temperatures and higher RH provide some reprieve Sunday night. 40% critical probabilities have been added to cover this threat. ...Day 4/Monday... ...Wyoming/Northern High Plains... A fire weather threat may be reintroduced into portions of WY and the northern High Plains as the trough across the Pacific Northwest makes eastward progress into the Northern Plains. However, some uncertainty exists regarding the deeper subtropical moisture plume over the Four Corners and its eventual northward extent. Expanding leeward surface troughing across the northern/central Plains will promote the stronger low-level westerly flow across southern WY while dry and breezy conditions ahead of a cold front are possible across southern MT/northern WY and adjacent SD, but potential rainfall could mitigate these concerns. ...Southern Plains... Persistent south to southwest flow at the surface under a stagnant upper ridge is expected across portions of the southern Plains next week. Fuels across western OK and northwestern TX remain dry and receptive (ERCs near the 90th percentile) with minimal rainfall observed recently. South winds of 10 to locally 20 mph and the dry fuels will likely align, although forecast uncertainty in RH reductions each afternoon precludes introduction of critical probabilities for this outlook. ..Williams.. 09/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$