867
FNUS28 KWNS 162118
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0416 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

...Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move across British Columbia/Alberta on Day
3/Saturday, encouraging a dry airmass to translate northeastward
into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies through the weekend.
Through the remainder of the forecast period, guidance indicates an
upper ridge (currently atop the northern Plains) will gradually
shift westward to encompass much of the western CONUS, while the
eastern US is expected to remain in a progressively active troughing
pattern. Daily chances of thunderstorm activity are possible across
the eastern CONUS with several embedded shortwaves within the larger
troughing pattern, and across the Intermountain West as monsoonal
moisture advects northward once again. Portions of the Northwest,
Pacific Coast, and central/northern High Plains are forecast to
remain hot and mostly dry within the overall pattern, possibly
leading to increasing fuel receptivity.

Strong south-southwesterly flow aloft behind an exiting shortwave
trough will encourage dry and windy conditions across northeastern
California, northwestern Nevada, and central Oregon/Washington on
Day 3/Saturday. With preceding days of thunderstorms and numerous
lightning ignitions across the region, 15-25% RH values and locally
gusty winds could permit additional lightning holdovers to emerge.
Meteorological conditions may further intensify the increasingly dry
fuelscape, potentially impacting new/ongoing wildfires and control
efforts. 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced to account
for this threat.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$