160
FNUS28 KWNS 292148
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 311200Z - 061200Z

...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing should persist over the northeastern CONUS
into early next week, while high pressure will remain centered over
the Desert Southwest through the forecast period. Upper-level
troughing is forecast to continue across portions of the Pacific
Northwest through the weekend, with an eastern Pacific upper-level
low approaching the region on Day 3/Friday. Ensemble guidance
suggests the upper low will move onshore Day 4/Saturday, inducing
lee cyclogenesis east of the Canadian Rockies and sending an
associated dry cold front southward. This feature will reinforce
gusty surface winds amid a dry airmass across portions of the
Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Great Basin through Day 6/Monday.
Next week, long-range model guidance begins to differ in the
progression of the overall upper pattern. Some solutions depict a
temporary ridge to rebuild over the western CONUS, while others
portray a shortwave trough impinging upon the Pacific Northwest.

...Days 4-6/Saturday-Monday - Northwestern US...
As the upper low transitions into British Columbia and a surface low
amplifies across southern Alberta on Day 4/Saturday, a dry cold
front will progress southward through the Pacific Northwest. East of
the Cascades, a tightening surface pressure gradient and a 700 mb
40-50 kt jet will promote strong surface winds amid a very dry
boundary layer -- allowing greater potential for critical fire
conditions to materialize, especially where ERCs are approaching the
95th percentile. As such, 70% Critical probabilities have been
introduced across the Columbia Basin. 40% Critical probabilities
have been maintained on Day 4-5/Saturday-Sunday across the northwest
CONUS and the northern Great Basin where hot, dry, and windy
conditions are forecast to overlap dry fuels. On Day 6/Monday,
stronger southwest/westerly flow aloft will finally begin to exit
the region, pushing into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Nevertheless, residual dry and breezy conditions are expected across
the northern Great Basin into western Wyoming, supporting the
introduction of 40% Critical probabilities.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/29/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$