003
FNUS28 KWNS 102154
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

...Synopsis...
Broad upper-level troughing will be in place over the
Manitoba/Ontario region continuing on Day 3/Friday as a ridge begins
to build over the west coast.  A shortwave trough is forecast to
push south/eastward around the base of the persistent Canadian
trough, moving through the northern Rockies around Day 5/Sunday. A
breakdown of the upper-level ridge will begin early next week as a
jet max progresses ahead of another northern Pacific trough. This
trough is currently anticipated to arrive onshore of the Pacific
Northwest late next week, nudging the remnants of the western ridge
over the Great Plains by late next week.

...Day 3/Friday...
...Four Corners, Southern Colorado Rockies, and Great Basin...
The broader fire weather threat will linger and become more focused
over the central Rockies and nearby portions of the central High
Plains through Day 3/Friday. Additionally, portions of the Snake
River Plain will also experience these winds as a cold front
approaches from the north ahead of the aforementioned shortwave.
This will allow for above normal surface temperatures and coincident
dry afternoon Rh`s (5-15%) on Day 3/Friday that will combine with
westerly winds (sustained at 10-20 mph) across both highlighted
areas.

...Day 4/Saturday...
A relatively skinny ridge in place over the western CONUS, a subtle
mid-level shortwave moving over the Southwest, and a plume of
moisture advecting northward from Tropical Storm Boris will lead to
potential convection primarily over the southern Great Basin on Day
4/Saturday. This combined with dry antecedent conditions from
multiple days of the recent hot, dry, and windy pattern will result
in a dry thunderstorm concern over northern AZ into southern UT. The
latest forecast guidance has sped up the northern reach of this
moisture a bit, necessitating a northward shift of the existing 10
percent Dry Thunderstorm area. Modifications to this area will
likely be required in subsequent outlooks as forecast certainty
increases.

Thereafter, a lingering isolated dry thunderstorm threat isn`t out
of the question over the central/southern Great Basin on Day
5/Sunday. However, depending on how moisture advection trends with
forecast guidance, the threat beyond Day 4/Saturday will likely be
dampened. Additionally, the breakdown of the upper-level ridge in
place over the west will likely lead to fire weather concerns
sometime next week across a broad area of the Intermountain West.
However, the placement and timing of that threat is currently
unknown. This scenario will be watched closely as details become
more clear.

..Stearns.. 06/10/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$