602
FNUS28 KWNS 142155
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

An upper-level trough and associated surface low over the Northern
Plains on Day 3/Friday will push through the Great Lakes Region by
Day 5/Sunday. An active upper-wave pattern will persist across CONUS
with another upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S.  by Day
5/Sunday, gradually pushing into the Eastern U.S. through Day 8
where widespread rainfall is expected. Fire weather concerns should
remain concentrated across portions of the Southwest where dry fuels
and recent active fire activity amid drought conditions have
occurred. A broad ridging pattern begins to build across the West by
the middle of next week promoting generally light surface winds but
above normal temperatures and dry conditions, which will aid in the
curing/drying of fuels.

...Southwest...
A multi-day fire weather threat will persist across parts of the
southwest through early next week. Modest mid-level flow over a
well-mixed boundary layer should allow for gusty southwest winds
across southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico on Day
4/Saturday. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the incoming
upper-level trough into the western U.S. should promote at least
Elevated if not Critical fire weather conditions across southern New
Mexico where dry fuels and drought persist on Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday.
40 percent Critical probabilities were added to reflect higher
confidence of fire weather threat.

..Williams.. 05/14/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$