885
FNUS28 KWNS 302216
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 071200Z

...Synopsis...
A robust fire weather pattern is expected across portions of the
Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and portions of the northern
Plains this weekend. Multiple days of very dry and windy conditions
amid an exceptionally dry fuelscape will promote significant fire
weather concerns for numerous ongoing large wildfires across the
region and any new ignitions.

Upper-level troughing should persist over the northeastern CONUS
into early next week, while high pressure will remain centered over
the Desert Southwest through the forecast period. An upper low will
transition into British Columbia on Day 3/Saturday with amplified
southwesterly flow over the Pacific Northwest. A dry cold front will
quickly progress southward across the Northwest and northern Great
Basin through Day 4/Sunday. This feature will reinforce gusty
surface winds amid a dry airmass across much of the northwestern
CONUS through Day 5/Monday. Next week, long-range model guidance
begins to differ in the progression of the overall upper pattern.
Some solutions depict a temporary ridge to rebuild over the western
CONUS, while others portray a shortwave trough impinging upon the
Pacific Northwest.

...Days 3-5/Saturday-Monday - Northwestern US...
As the upper low transitions into British Columbia and a surface low
amplifies across southern Alberta on Day 3/Saturday, a dry cold
front will progress southward through the Pacific Northwest. East of
the Cascades and Northern Rockies, a tightening surface pressure
gradient and an emerging 700 mb 40-50 kt jet will promote strong
southwest-westerly surface winds amid a very dry boundary layer --
allowing greater potential for critical fire conditions to
materialize, especially where ERCs are approaching the 95th
percentile. As such, 70% Critical probabilities have been expanded
into eastern Oregon, the Idaho Panhandle, and northwestern Montana.
In addition, recent guidance indicates a corridor of sustained 20-30
mph winds amid 15-20% RH in central-eastern Washington, possibly
leading to extremely critical fire weather concerns where a few
large fires are ongoing.

Hot, dry, and windy conditions will shift slightly eastward on Day
4/Sunday, encompassing portions of the northern High Plains. 70%
Critical probabilities have been introduced across much of Montana,
central-eastern Idaho, and western Wyoming where very strong winds
and critically low RH are forecast amid dry fuels. While recent
accumulating rainfall has provided some relief to western South
Dakota, eastern Wyoming, and the Nebraska Panhandle, fine fuels may
grow increasingly receptive by Sunday. As such, 40% Critical
probabilities have been expanded where low RH and gusty winds should
overlap.

On Day 5/Monday, stronger southwest/westerly flow aloft will finally
begin to exit the region, pushing into the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. Nevertheless, residual dry and breezy conditions are
expected across the northern Great Basin into western Wyoming,
supporting 40% Critical probabilities.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/30/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$