317
FNUS28 KWNS 202143
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

Upper-level troughing off the West Coast will continue to bring
southerly flow and Pacific moisture, enhanced by Post Tropical
Cyclone Elida, into the northwest US. While the main upper low is
forecast to remain offshore of the Pacific Northwest, troughing will
move into the northwest US late this week, with enhanced mid-level
west-southwest flow across the region by the weekend. The Four
Corners High will persist through the outlook period with daily
monsoonal thunderstorms likely across much of the greater Four
Corners region.

...Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday...
Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected
across portions of northern California, much of Oregon, and possibly
into the Washington Cascades Day 3/Wednesday, mostly during the
afternoon and evening. PWAT values of 0.9-1.25" are expected, but
20-30 knot storm motions and receptive fuels should result in
lightning ignitions. Scattered thunderstorms are likely across
central Oregon with 50-70% probabilities of rainfall exceeding 0.10"
amid surface dewpoints of 40-55F. Given the receptive fuels and fire
activity in the area, a subsequent outlook upgrade to a Scattered
DryT area is possible if the wetting rain footprint remains
relatively smaller to thunderstorm coverage.

Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across
portions of central/eastern Washington, northeast Oregon, and the
Idaho Panhandle into northwest Montana Day 4/Thursday. The ambient
environment will dry slightly, but surface dewpoints of 40-50F and
PWAT values of 0.8-1.2" will still produce cores of wetting rain.
However, given the likely mixed wet/dry thunderstorm modes and
receptive fuels, a 10% area was introduced. Additionally, dry and
breezy west/southwest winds will begin to push inland across the
Inland Northwest into the northwest Great Basin as the onshore
pressure gradient tightens and stronger flow aloft arrives.

...Day 5/Friday - Day 8/Monday...
As the aforementioned stronger flow aloft moves over the northwest
and onshore pressure gradient tightens, dry and breezy conditions
will develop across much of the Inland Northwest, Idaho, Montana,
and northern Great Basin on Day 5/Friday. There remains some
uncertainty regarding the development of critical winds/RH, with
some guidance indicating areas in Idaho and Montana having the
highest probabilities of critical winds/RH over the least receptive
fuels in the region. Dry and breezy conditions will likely continue
across portions of the northwest US through the weekend, but too
much forecast uncertainty precludes any additional upgrades at this
time. Overall, lightning followed by multiple consecutive days of
dry and breezy conditions are expected across areas with ERCs > 90th
percentile and active large wildfires.

..Nauslar.. 07/20/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$