729
FNUS28 KWNS 112126
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

...Synopsis...
By the end of Day 3/Thursday, a longwave trough is expected to be
over the northeastern CONUS while a shortwave trough begins to move
onshore near southern CA. This feature will traverse the Southwest
and Southern Plains this weekend. Increasing mid-level flow near the
base of this trough, and the surface pressure gradient on the
western periphery of an associated cyclone, should support breezy
west-northwesterly surface winds across much of the Trans-Pecos and
the Big Bend of TX Day 5/Saturday. Confidence remains high enough to
continue with low critical probabilities within this area, where
fuels will likely remain receptive to fire starts. However, some
initial cold air advection accompanying a Pacific front may keep RH
above critical thresholds and an increase in probabilities has not
been considered at this time.

A modified Arctic air mass encompassing most of the CONUS east of
the Rockies and generally weaker surface winds will limit the
overall fire weather threat into Day 6/Sunday. Increasing orthogonal
mid-level flow across the southern Rockies D7/Monday, however, will
induce lee pressure falls. A return to relatively dry southerly
surface winds across the Southern Plains, and increasing westerly
downslope over eastern NM and the Trans-Pecos are anticipated by
this time. Confidence isn`t high enough to warrant low probabilities
for these areas yet given the timing and depth of another
approaching Pacific shortwave trough, though this area will be
monitored in subsequent forecasts. A similar scenario and low
confidence may apply to Day 8/Tuesday across far southern NM and the
western Trans-Pecos ahead of another cold front.

..Barnes.. 02/11/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$