913
FNUS28 KWNS 122137
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

Upper-level troughing is expected over both the East and West Coasts
Day 3/Thursday - Day 5/Saturday, with upper-level ridging slowly
shifting from over the central US to over portions of the eastern
US. There is forecast uncertainty regarding how this amplified
upper-level pattern progresses early next week, which will have
ramifications for potential fire weather concerns in
southern/central California and the Northeast.

...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic...
An approaching warm front with associated cloud cover and possible
shower activity will limit fire weather concerns across the
Mid-Atlantic and into portions of the Northeast on Day 3/Thursday.
However, dry/breezy conditions are likely to develop across portions
of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Day 4/Friday - Day 6/Saturday.
Given the recent drought, lack of forecast rain, and near to record
high fire danger, 40% probabilities were expanded and introduced
during what appears to be a multi-day fire weather episode. Some
forecast uncertainty remains regarding forecast precipitation and
where the greatest overlap of elevated/critical winds/RH will be,
but confidence is increasing in at least elevated fire weather
conditions for portions of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, the
Hudson Valley/vicinity, and southern New England late this week
through the weekend.

...Southern/central California...
Breezy/gusty north-northwest winds are possible in portions of
central/southern California Day 5/Saturday into Day 7/Monday as
multiple cold fronts sweep south and east over the region. The
southern extent of forecast precipitation and the magnitude of these
winds remain uncertain precluding 40% areas at this time. Confidence
is increasing in an offshore/Santa Ana wind event mid-next week,
which is on the edge of the outlook period. This event may start on
Day 8/Tuesday and last multiple days. This will be monitored and if
trends hold, probabilities will likely be added in subsequent
extended outlooks.

..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$