272
FNUS28 KWNS 032041
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

A persistent mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain across the
Northwest U.S. Day 3/Tuesday into Day 7/Saturday. Meanwhile, a
mid/upper-level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest Day
3/Sunday is forecast to slowly build northwestward into the southern
Great Basin through at least Day 6/Friday while remaining
quasistationary over the Desert Southwest.

...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Tuesday - Day
6/Friday...
Multiple days of hot, dry and windy conditions are expected across
the Great Basin, northern Arizona, and western portions of the Rocky
Mountains Day 3/Tuesday through Day 6/Friday. At this time, critical
fire weather conditions appear most likely across portions of
central/southern Utah, far northern Arizona, and far eastern Nevada
Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday as mid/upper-level winds increase
over the area sandwiched between the base of the trough and along
the northern periphery of the ridge. Fuels across this region remain
extremely receptive to fire spread owing to lack of recent
appreciable rainfall and subsequent ongoing moderate/severe drought
conditions.

Thereafter, guidance begins to diverge a bit regarding the evolution
of the upper-level trough/ridge pattern. Nevertheless, persistent
enhanced deep-layer flow atop receptive fuels coupled with dry to
very dry low-levels suggest continued chances for near Critical
conditions Day 5/Thursday and Day 6/Friday. Enhanced fire weather
conditions are forecast to finally diminish Day 7/Saturday as the
trough/ridge shift away from the area.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of Arizona into far
southern Utah beginning Day 4/Wednesday through much of the work
week. Dry thunderstorms are possible across northern Arizona and
southern Utah, where fuels remain receptive to fire spread due to
the ongoing severe/extreme drought conditions. However, increasing
PWATs and uncertainties regarding coverage/location of any
thunderstorms precludes introducing probabilities for dry
thunderstorms at this time.

..Elliott.. 08/03/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$