985
FNUS28 KWNS 042137
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 PM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday...
A mid-level trough will progress eastward from the Great Lakes
region into the northeastern U.S. through midweek. An associated
surface cold front and attendant rainfall will stretch across much
of the Great Lakes into New England through the Day 5/Wednesday
period, mitigating some fire weather concerns across much of the
Ohio River Valley where very dry fuels and drought remain. A plume
of deeper Gulf moisture from a tropical disturbance and attendant
showers and thunderstorms moving northward will subdue fire weather
concerns across the Lower Mississippi River Valley and Appalachians
through midweek. West of the Divide, a gradual warming and drying
trend will emerge as an elongated mid-level trough departs the
region, although rather benign fuel conditions in the wake of recent
cool and moist conditions will continue to limit fire weather
threats across the West.

...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday...
Ensemble cluster analysis reveals increasing uncertainty late in the
week in terms of timing and magnitude of the next mid-level trough
coming into the western U.S. Deeper moisture from tropical cyclone
activity in the eastern Pacific could interact with the potential
mid-latitude cyclone bringing more rain to the Desert Southwest,
Great Basin and Intermountain West Days 7-8/Friday-Saturday. This
would further subdue fire weather concerns across the region in
addition to an unsupportive fuel environment.

..Williams.. 10/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$