199
FNUS28 KWNS 022030
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 101200Z

A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain entrenched across
portions of the Northwest from Day 3/Monday into Day 8/Saturday.
Meanwhile, a quasistationary mid/upper-level ridge, initially
centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is
forecast to gradually build northwestward, eventually reaching
portions of the southern Great Basin by midweek and then retreating
to the Desert Southwest by the end of the period.

...Great Basin...
Multiple days of hot, very dry, and windy conditions are expected
atop extremely receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin
and neighboring areas Day 3/Monday though at least Day 6/Thursday.
Critical fire weather conditions appear likely across portions of
central/southern Utah Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday as enhanced
mid/upper-level winds strengthen over the area near the base of the
trough and along the northern periphery of the ridge.

While some guidance indicates subtle increases in low-level moisture
Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, elevated to at least locally
critical conditions will likely continue across much of the same
areas given breezy conditions over receptive fuels (owing to
lingering moderate/severe drought conditions).

...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms...
While a few thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday across portions
of Oregon into Idaho, PWAT values near or greater than 0.8" and
multiple days of precipitation across the region reduce confidence
in isolated dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, new ignitions
may be possible along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores
wherever fuels remain receptive.

Thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona beginning
Day 4/Tuesday and lingering through much of the work week. Isolated
dry thunderstorms will be possible given fuels across this area
remain extremely receptive to fire spread due to severe/extreme
drought conditions. However, increasing PWATs suggest a mix of
wet/dry thunderstorms, which precludes introducing probabilities for
dry thunderstorms at this time.

..Elliott.. 08/02/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$