577
FNUS28 KWNS 312130
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0428 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 081200Z

...Synopsis...
A semi-stagnant synoptic pattern will continue through the end of
this week. An upper low will lift into southwestern Canada on Day
3/Tuesday, meanwhile a blocking ridge remains over the Central U.S.
and Upper Midwest. Surface high pressure and associated dry
conditions amid light winds will dominate over the Great Lakes
through at least Day 4/Wednesday, then the aforementioned upper low
translates eastward along the US/Canada border, pushing the surface
high southward. A North Atlantic trough will transition into an
upper low as it moves offshore the Eastern Seaboard on Day
4/Wednesday. Much of the Plains and Mid-South will continue to see
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with deeper boundary
layer moisture in place, keeping broader fire weather concerns low.
A robust upper trough is expected to approach the Northwest on Day
6/Friday bringing a possible pattern shift, albeit extended guidance
diverges on overall timing and progression.

...Portions of the Southwest and Colorado Plateau...
A warming and drying trend across much of the Intermountain West and
Southwest will continue through the period. Diffuse surface pressure
gradients will maintain lighter winds with above normal temperatures
and dry conditions, supporting the drying and curing of fuels. An
intrusion of deeper atmospheric moisture into the Southwest on Day
3/Tuesday will promote thunderstorms and appreciable precipitation
in eastern NM. However, guidance depicts moisture will be less
significant west of the Divide, with forecast soundings portraying a
prominent dry sub-cloud layer and PWATs of 0.5-0.8" amid daytime
instability, allowing some possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms
to evolve. 10% probabilities for Dry Thunderstorms have been
maintained across far eastern AZ into western NM to account for this
threat. Conditions may continue through Day 4/Wednesday, however
higher PWATs and slower storm motions preclude the introduction of
additional Dry Thunderstorm probabilities.

...Great Lakes region...
As the blocking pattern gradually breaks down, surface high pressure
should reinforce warm and dry conditions across the region through
mid-week. The upper ridge will begin to flatten on Day 4/Wednesday
as an upper low traverses southern Canada. Very warm daytime
temperatures and RH declining to near critical values on Day
5/Thursday could allow fire weather concerns to emerge where
favorable fuels exist. However, misaligned breezy winds/critical RH
preclude the introduction of probabilities at this time, though
trends will be monitored in future outlook cycles.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/31/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$