033
FNUS28 KWNS 202155
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

...Synopsis...
The trough will begin to lift northeastward as it becomes slightly
negatively-tilted going into Day 3/Saturday. High pressure remains
in place over much of the southwestern half of the CONUS with
shortwave trough passages periodically moving across the crest of
the high through the northern states. While slight differences in
timing of the aforementioned trough remain, the overall pattern
evolution remains similar amongst various ensemble forecast
guidance. As we turn the corner toward next week, the ridge broadens
and builds over the Intermountain West once again. Forecast
certainty in any particular solution decreases thereafter given
greater ensemble spread.

...Pacific Northwest/Northern California/Great Basin...
The Pacific Northwest and immediately neighboring areas of northern
CA and the Great Basin will remain a focus through at least the
first half of the extended forecast. Expect gusty southwesterly
winds combined with dry weather to continue into Day 3/Saturday.
Cooler conditions will arrive as the trough approaches and moves
onshore Day 3/Saturday. Given the jet aloft and surface conditions
that would support deep daytime mixing, a favorable pattern remains
in place for dry and breezy weather to overlap very dry fuels across
northeastern CA, southern OR, and northwestern NV. Thus, 40%
Critical probabilities were maintained on Day 3/Saturday.
Additionally, where winds appear strongest (sustained at 20-25 mph
from the southwest amid RHs near 10-15%) ahead of an approaching
cold front over the tri-state CA, OR, NV area, 70% Critical
probabilities were maintained on Day 3/Saturday.

Lift associated with the upper-level jet max approaching the region,
limited but adequate (precipitable water values near 0.6-0.8")
moisture, fast-moving (25-35 mph) storms, and dry fuels (ERCs near
the 80-95th percentile) remains in place on Day 3/Saturday as
convection is expected to become more widespread. With minimal
precipitation expected from the previous day, the existing area of
10% Dry Thunderstorm risk was expanded to include a larger areal
extent of the eastern Pacific Northwest and nearby northern Great
Basin and western MT. Central ID and northeastern WA will be closely
monitored for a potential increase in thunderstorm coverage.
Additional 10% Dry Thunderstorm risk areas were added over far
northeastern WA on Day 4/Sunday as convection lingers and again on
Day 5/Monday over the area of southwest ID, southeast OR, and
portions of northern NV as monsoonal moisture continues to meander
further west.

...Southern Plains...
On Day 4/Sunday and Day 5/Monday, a cold front will move across the
southern Plains, increasing fire weather risk in southwesterly flow
ahead of the front as it progresses southeastward. Current ensemble
forecast guidance suggests sustained 10-20 mph south to
southwesterly winds will combine with afternoon RHs near 15-20%
across the TX/OK Panhandles and surrounding areas with critically
dry fuels.

...Northern Plains...
Post-frontal northwesterly winds over the northern High Plains and
portions of the northern Rocky Mountains remains a concern on Day
4/Sunday. Across much of central MT, sustained northwesterly winds
of 10-20 mph will occur amid afternoon RHs of 15-25%. The existing
40% Critical probabilities were adjusted slightly westward on Day
4/Sunday.

..Stearns.. 08/20/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$